USDA reports hit the corn market: record harvest and unexpected numbers

The latest data package from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) delivered a series of surprises to the market, particularly regarding the 2025 corn crop. However, the main shock was the colossal gap between traders’ expectations and the agency’s actual figures. While market participants digest the statistics, analysts are pointing to indicators that may have been missed when forecasting the season’s outcome.

Record Production and Yield

In its January 12 Crop Production report, the USDA raised its 2025 U.S. corn production forecast to 17.021 billion bushels, with an average yield of 186.5 bushels per acre.

• The production forecast was 1.6% higher than December estimates and 14% higher than 2024 figures.
• These figures confirm that the 2025 U.S. corn harvest is the largest ever. The yield figure also hit a new all-time high.

These figures were well outside the range of trade expectations: the average analyst forecast was 16.552 billion bushels by volume and 184 bushels per acre by yield.

Geographic Shift and Personnel Issues

“This is the biggest surprise in January reports in the last 20 years,” said Brian Harris, executive director of Global Risk Management, Inc. According to him, corn acreage has been steadily shifting westward in recent years. Although states with intensive production suffered from hot and dry weather, expansion of acreage in western regions offset these losses.

While Iowa and Illinois still account for about a third of total production, several other states have seen year-over-year yield growth of 75% or more.

At the same time, experts are expressing concern about the quality of the USDA’s own analysis. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, noted that the agency lost approximately 20% of its staff over the year: “We’re seeing a significant loss of experienced analysts, and it appears this is starting to impact forecast accuracy.”

Illogical Consumption and Export Potential

Suderman also expressed confusion about the distribution of corn consumption in the WASDE report. The USDA forecasts feed use of grain in the 2025/26 season at 6.2 billion bushels (up 14% year-on-year).

“They’ve increased feed consumption to an illogically high level instead of raising the export forecast. You can’t feed 750 million more bushels when the livestock herd is declining,” the expert emphasized.

Many analysts expected the agency to raise its export forecast (currently 3.2 billion bushels), given that current shipment rates are significantly ahead of seasonal norms.

Market Reaction and Forecasts

The news caused chaos on the exchange: the March 2026 contract plunged more than 5% on the day of the report’s release. However, analysts don’t expect a permanent decline.

• Brian Harris believes the market will stabilize at $4.05–$4.10 per bushel, but there is little hope for growth due to the massive harvest in South America.
• Arlan Suderman expects a new sideways trading range to form. He believes that a significant rally will now require significant weather threats—either in Brazil during the winter corn growing season or in the US during the summer.

Tags: corn, crop forecast