USDA raises wheat production estimate

The National Agricultural Statistics Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its Small Grains Summary 2025 issued Sept. 30 estimated wheat production in the United States this year at 1,984,537,000 bushels, up 57,511,000 bushels from the August forecast and up 5,840,000 bushels, or 3%, from the upwardly revised production estimate of 1,978,697,000 bushels in 2024.

The 2025 crop was the largest since 2.3 billion bushels in 2016 and compared with 1.78 billion bushels as the recent five-year average.

The all-wheat harvested area in 2025 was estimated at 37,241,000 acres, down 1,392,000 acres, or 3.6%, from 38,633,000 acres in 2024. The average wheat yield in 2025 was estimated at 53.3 bushels per acre, which compared with 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024. It was the highest average yield on record, topping the second highest at 52.7 bushels per acre in 2016.

The government’s assessment of all-wheat production was within reason, said Mike O’Dea, risk management consultant for StoneX, Kansas City, Missouri.

“The number is OK, but I was a little surprised in that, historically, we usually see the numbers come down a little bit,” he said. “Probably a little bearish, wheat futures made new lows this morning (Oct. 1), but we’ve kind of come back. Matif wheat bounced nicely, put in a new low and rallied and closed higher. Spreads are a little firmer, Chicago wheat’s trying to come back and corn. Wheat’s fairly well priced where it’s at. I think the US is going to do a little more export business. There’s nothing to get too excited about.”

The USDA estimated the production of spring wheat other than durum at 496,760,000 bushels, up 12,280,000 bushels from the August projection but down 47,450,000 bushels, or 8.7%, from 544,210,000 bushels in 2024. The USDA estimated other-spring wheat harvested area at 9,610,000 acres, down 7.5% from 2024. The average yield was 51.7 bushels per acre. It was the second-highest other-spring wheat average yield on record, falling short only to 52.4 bushels per acre in 2024.

The USDA estimated hard red spring wheat production in 2025 at 458,347,000 bushels, up 8,927,000 bushels from the August forecast and up 46,510,000 bushels, or 10%, from 504,757,000 bushels in 2024. The recent five-year average hard red spring wheat outturn was 517 million bushels.

The hard white spring wheat crop was estimated at 9,568,000 bushels, up 1,310,000 bushels from the August outlook and up 66,000 bushels, or 0.7%, from 9,502,000 bushels in 2024. The soft white spring wheat crop was estimated at 28,845,000 bushels, up 2,043,000 bushels from August but down 1,106,000 bushels, or 3.7%, from 29,951,000 bushels a year ago.

The USDA estimated durum production in 2025 at 86,223,000 bushels, down 1,188,000 bushels, or 1.4%, from the August projection but up 6,172,000 bushels, or 7.7%, from 80,051,000 bushels in 2024. The durum harvested area was estimated at 2,123,000 acres, up 4.3% from 2024, and the average yield climbed to 40.6 bushels per acre compared with 39.3 bushels an acre last year.

The USDA estimated 2025 winter wheat production at 1,401,554,000 bushels, up 46,419,000 bushels from the August estimate and up 47,118,000 bushels, or 3.5%, from 1,354,436,000 bushels in 2024. Harvested area was estimated at 25,508,000 acres, down 699,000 acres from 26,207,000 acres in 2024. The USDA noted record-high production was estimated in Idaho, and record high yields were estimated in Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, South Carolina and Texas.

Hard red winter wheat production in 2025 was estimated at 804,443,000 bushels, up 35,338,000 bushels from the August estimate and up 31,010,000 bushels or 4%, from 773,433,000 bushels in 2024. It was the largest hard red winter wheat outturn since 844.9 million bushels in 2019 and compared with 660.8 million bushels as the five-year average production.

“I thought the USDA’s hard red winter wheat increase was a little much, but the spring wheat numbers looked OK,” said O’Dea. “The numbers are what they are, now we just have to figure out how to trade them.”

The USDA estimated soft red winter wheat production in 2025 at 352,916,000 bushels, up 13,510,000 bushels, or 4%, from the August estimate and up 8,471,000 bushels, or 2.5%, from 344,445,000 bushels in 2024. The recent five-year average soft red winter wheat outturn was 350.9 million bushels.

The soft white winter wheat crop was estimated at 229,999,000 bushels, up 3,876,000 bushels from the August estimate and up 13,027,00 bushels, or 6%, from 216,972,000 bushels in 2024. The hard white winter wheat crop was estimated at 14,196,000 bushels, down 6,305,000 bushels from the August estimate and down 5,390,000 bushels, or 28%, from 19,586,000 bushels in 2024.

Tags: wheat, hard white spring wheat, crop, yield, soft white winter wheat, soft red winter wheat, Hard Red Winter-wheat, durum, spring wheat, winter wheat, hard red spring wheat, United States, estimate, Production, harvested area