USDA Predicts More Corn, Less Wheat and Soybeans in 2025

USDA, in its Prospective Plantings report on Monday, projected farmers will plant 95.3 million acres of corn, within the range of pre-report recommendations but above the average guess of 94.2 million. Soybean acreage was forecast at 83.5 million.

Monday’s USDA acreage estimates were moderately bearish for corn, moderately bullish for soybeans and bullish for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the March report was the wheat acres. All wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 ma, down 2% from 2024 and below average pre-report estimates. If realized, this represents the second-lowest all-wheat planted area since 1919.

USDA estimates 2025 winter wheat planted area at 33.3 ma, down 2% from the previous estimate and down less than 1% from last year. Of this total, about 23.6 ma are hard red winter, 6.09 ma are soft red winter, and 3.66 ma are white winter.

Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2025 is estimated at 10.0 ma, down 6% from 2024 estimate. Of this total, about 9.4 ma are hard red spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2025 is expected to total 2.02 ma, down 2% from the previous year.

For weeks, the rumblings about corn acreage suggested USDA’s March acreage estimate could easily exceed the 94.2 million acres that Dow Jones survey participants had expected. That turned out to be correct as the resulting 1.1 million rise above the average estimate had little impact on December corn futures.

The 95.3-million-acre estimate turns out to be the fourth highest ever for March, and within a few million acres of the 2012 record of 97.3 million. Much of the area increase was attributed to Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and North Dakota. December corn gravitated around unchanged to slightly lower for much of the day, a tepid reaction to the much higher-than-expected acreage number. Compared to 2024, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating states.

USDA estimated soybean planted area for 2025 at 83.5 ma, down 4% from last year and just below average pre-report estimates. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 23 of the 29 estimating states, USDA said.

All wheat acreage is expected to total 5.21 million acres for 2025. Winter wheat seeded last fall for harvest in 2025 is estimated at 2.30 million acres, up 350,000 acres, or 18 percent, from the area seeded in 2024. If realized, this would represent the largest planted area since 2015.

Growers intend to seed 760,000 acres of Durum wheat this year, down 120,000 acres, or 14 percent, from last year. Growers intend to seed 2.15 million acres of spring wheat this year, down 300,000 acres or 12 percent from 2024. Growers intend to plant 800,000 acres of barley in 2025, down 100,000 acres, or 11 percent, from last year’s actual plantings and 33 percent below 2023.

Tags: winter wheat, soybeans, wheat, acreage, durum wheat, spring wheat, estimates, planted area, area, corn, USDA