USDA lowers global oilseed production forecast, including soybeans, but quotes are falling
In the November world oilseed balance for 2025/26 MY, FAS USDA experts lowered the forecast for world oilseed production compared to September estimates by 3.54 million tons to 688 million tons, which will still exceed the previous season’s figure of 683.75 million tons by 4.25 million tons (656.73 million tons in MY 2023/24).
The forecast for global soybean production has been reduced by 4.1 million tons (against a backdrop of reduced production in the USA, Ukraine and India), for sunflower seeds by 1 million tons (as the reduction in the harvest in Ukraine, Russia, the EU and Turkey is partially offset by its increase in Argentina), while the forecast for global rapeseed production has been increased by 1.31 million tons due to increased production in the EU, Australia, Ukraine and the UK.
According to the USDA forecast, global oilseed processing in 2025/26 MY will decrease by 1.58 million tons to 578.37 (566) million tons due to a reduction in soybean and sunflower processing, but rapeseed processing will increase.
The forecast for world ending oilseed stocks has been increased by 2.75 million tons to 142.26 (141.7) million tons, although soybean stocks will decrease significantly.
The forecast for world rapeseed production in MY 2025/26 has been increased by 1.313 million tons to 92.273 (86) million tons, in particular for the EU – by 0.55 million tons to 20.2 (19.24) million tons, for Ukraine – by 0.26 to 3.56 (3.6) million tons, and for Australia – by 0.3 to 6.7 (6.4) million tons. For Canada, the production forecast was left at 20 (19.24) million tons, although local analysts estimate it at 20.5 million tons.
The forecast for rapeseed imports for China was increased from 4.1 to 4.4 (4.6) million tons, and for the EU it was reduced by 0.2 million tons to 5.5 (7.96) million tons against the backdrop of a fairly high domestic supply.
On Friday, November canola futures fell 0.5% to CAD 648/t or $ 462/t (+1.2% in two months), and February rapeseed futures in Paris fell 0.6% to € 479.25/t or $ 556.7/t (+1.3% in two months) under pressure from increasing supply, which will continue to grow as the harvest in Australia in December.
The forecast for world soybean production in 20205/26 MY has been reduced by 4.1 million tons to 421.75 million tons, in particular for the USA – by 1.3 million tons to 115.75 (119) million tons, Ukraine – by 1.4 to 6.2 (7) million tons, and India – to 10 (12.6) million tons.
The forecast for global soybean consumption has been reduced by 2.35 million tons to 421.54 (413) million tons, in particular for Argentina by 1.7 million tons.
The forecast for world soybean exports has been increased by 0.2 million tons to 188 (185) million tons, in particular for Brazil by 0.5 million tons and Argentina by 2.3 million tons, which compensates for the decrease in supplies from the USA by 0.9 million tons and from Ukraine.
World ending soybean stocks will decrease by 2 million tons to 121.99 (123.34) million tons, with the decline in stocks in Argentina, Brazil, the USA, the EU, Ukraine and India partially offset by their growth in China.
It should be noted that the USDA increased its estimate of Brazil’s soybean harvest in the MY 2024/25 by 2.5 million tons to 171.5 million tons, which is in line with Conab’s forecast, but for now left the forecast for this season at 175 million tons, although local analysts have increased their estimates to 178-181 million tons.
November soybean futures in Chicago fell 1.8% to $408.9/t after the report, but are trading 6.4% higher than two months ago, already factoring in lower production forecasts and reacting to lower consumption forecasts.
The forecast for world sunflower production has been reduced by 1 million tons to 54.26 (52.14) million tons, in particular for Russia – by 0.5 to 18.5 (16.9) million tons, for Ukraine – by 0.7 to 12.0 (13) million tons, for Turkey – by 0.23 to 1.37 (1.35) million tons and for the EU – by 0.275 to 8.575 (8.24) million tons, which is partially offset by an increase in production in Argentina by 0.7 to 5 (5.1) million tons.
The forecast for global sunflower seeds processing has been reduced by 0.84 million tons to 54.1 million tons, which will be 3.7% higher than last season’s figure of 52.14 million tons.
The forecast for ending sunflower seeds stocks has been reduced by 0.42 million tons to 3.05 million tons, which will correspond to the level of last season.
Sunseed prices in Ukraine decreased by 1-2% per week to the level of 28,000-28,500 UAH/t (with delivery to the factory at 50% oil content), which is 4% higher than the level in mid-September.
Vegetable oil markets remain under pressure from increased supply and reduced demand from importers, which is pushing down prices for palm and other oils, so oilseed prices should stabilize with some downward correction within the month.
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