USDA lowered wheat harvest estimates for the EU and Russia
The global wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 794.73 mln tonnes (+0.65 mln tonnes to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for November.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 214.67 million tons (-1.15 million tons). Experts lowered the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 214.67 million tons (-0.15 million tons).
Estimates of the harvest (22.9 million tons), exports (16 million tons) and ending stocks (0.99 million tons) of wheat for Ukraine remained unchanged.
The forecast of wheat harvest in the United States has not changed – 53.65 million tons, exports are also unchanged – 22.45 million tons, ending stocks will be at 22.17 million tons (+0.08 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2024/25:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
| Argentina | 17,5 (-0,5) | 11,5 (0) | 3,53 (-0,5) |
| Australia | 32 (0) | 25 (0) | 2,75 (0) |
| Canada | 35 (0) | 26 (0) | 4,53 (0) |
| EU | 122,6 (-0,4) | 30 (0) | 10,09 (-0,32) |
| Russia | 81,5 (-0,5) | 48 (0) | 7,24 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in MY 2024/25 at 140 mln tonnes, the imports estimate – 11.5 mln tonnes (-0.5 mln tonnes), the ending stocks – 134 mln tonnes (-0.5 mln tonnes).
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