USDA lowered its estimate of wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia in MY 2024/25

The world wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 793.24 mln tonnes (+0.29 mln tonnes to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for January.

The forecast for world wheat exports is 212 million tons (-1.65 million tons). Experts raised the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 258.82 million tons (+0.94 million tons).

The assessment of the wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine remained unchanged – 22.9 mln tonnes, while the export forecast was reduced by 0.5 mln tonnes to 16 mln tonnes. Ending stocks will be at 0.99 million tons (+0.2 million tons).

The forecast for the wheat harvest in the United States remained unchanged – 53.65 million tons, exports are estimated at 23.13 million tons, ending stocks – 21.71 million tons (+0.08 million tons).

Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2024/25:

USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in 2024/25 MY at 140.1 mln tonnes (+0.1 mln tonnes), the imports estimate – 10.5 mln tonnes (-0.5 mln tonnes), the ending stocks – 133.1 mln tonnes (-0.4 mln tonnes).

Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine, Russia, export, USDA Report, wheat