USDA increases harvest estimates for major wheat producers, no change for Ukraine
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 828.89 million tons (+12.69 million tons compared to the previous forecast), according to the USDA report for November.
Note: The previous USDA report was in September, not October, due to the US government shutdown.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 217.21 million tons (+2.49 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 271.43 million tons (+7.37 million tons).
The estimated wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine is 23 million tons, exports will be at 15 million tons, ending stocks – 1.93 million tons. That is, all indicators remained unchanged.
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 54.01 million tons (+1.56 million tons). Export estimate unchanged at 24.49 million tonnes, ending stocks at 24.52 million tonnes (+1.56 million tonnes).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 22 (+2,5) | 14 (+1) | 4,02 (-0,13) |
| Australia | 36 (+1,5) | 26 (+1) | 5,59 (+0,31) |
| Canada | 37 (+1) | 27 (0) | 5,36 (+1) |
| EU | 142,3 (+2,2) | 33 (+0,5) | 13,01 (+1,22) |
| Russia | 86,5 (+1,5) | 44 (-1) | 12,19 (+1) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2025/26 at 140 million tons, import estimate — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.78 million tons.
For almost 30 years of expertise in the agri markets, UkrAgroConsult has accumulated an extensive database, which became the basis of the platform AgriSupp.
It is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains and oilseeds that enables to get access to daily operational information on the Black Sea & Danube markets, analytical reports, historical data.
You are welcome to get a 7-day free demo access!!!
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon