USDA increased its estimate of U.S. soybean stocks and slightly reduced its estimate of planted areas

Favorable weather conditions in the US continue to improve the condition of soybean crops, which increases the pressure on quotes for the new crop, despite forecasts of a slight decrease in the area sown in the US.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, July soybean futures fell 3.3% to $376.3/t (-1% per month) over the week, and November futures fell 1.9% to $377.4/t under pressure from data on reduced exports and increased stocks of the old crop, as well as favorable planting weather in the US.

According to yesterday’s USDA reports:

• soybean stocks in the US as of June 1 amounted to 27.43 million tons, which exceeded analysts’ expectations by 2.9% and last year’s figure by 1.03 million tons;
• soybean plantings in the US amounted to 83.38 million acres (compared to 87.1 million acres in 2024), which is 275 thousand acres lower than the average estimate of analysts and 115 thousand acres lower than the March forecast;
• Soybean exports from the US during June 20-26 decreased by 11.4% to 224.8 thousand tons, and in total in the 2024/25 MY reached 45.85 million tons (out of the USDA forecast of 50.35 million tons), which is 10.3% higher than the corresponding figure last year.

The number of soybean crops in the US in good or excellent condition during June 23-29 remained unchanged at 66% (67% last year), but additional precipitation forecast for the next 5-7 days will improve the condition of the crops.

Export purchase prices for soybeans remain under pressure from declining stock market quotes and demand due to uncertainty over the introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed, which is still being discussed in parliament.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for GMO soybeans remain at 17,900-18,200 UAH/t or 382-385 $/t with delivery to the port, but delivery times are limited to July 5-10. There is no export demand for non-GMO soybeans at the ports, and prices for deliveries to the western border are 390-410 $/t or 19,000-19,300 UAH/t.

Processors continue to reduce soybean purchases due to difficulties in selling meal for export amid increasing supplies from South America and are preparing to begin receiving and processing rapeseed.

The 6.3% drop in September oil futures to $66.8/barrel in a week, OPEC+ plans to increase production in August by another 420,000 barrels, and US proposals to partially lift sanctions on Iran will continue to put pressure on prices for oil and vegetable oils, from which biofuels are produced.

Active rapeseed harvesting and increased rapeseed oil supply will also increase pressure on prices of other oilseeds, as rapeseed quotes fell by 6.7% over the week.