USDA has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s rapeseed and soybean harvests
The experts of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the October report left the forecast of the global oilseeds production in 2024/25 MY at 687.32 mln tonnes (657.56 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY).
According to GrainTrade, the forecast of sunflower production was increased by 0.14 mln tonnes, while the forecast of rapeseed and soybean production was decreased by 0.12 mln tonnes and 0.28 mln tonnes, respectively.
“The sunflower production estimates were raised for Argentina and Moldova due to the increase in planted areas, while the soybean production forecast was lowered for Ukraine, and rapeseed production was lowered for the EU, Moldova and Ukraine due to low yields and reduced planted areas,” the analysts added.
Compared to the September estimates, the new soybean balance for 2024/25 MY is almost unchanged.
The estimate of the beginning stocks was increased by 0.12 to 112.37 mln tonnes (100.92 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY).
The forecast of world soybean production was decreased by 0.28 to 428.92 mln tonnes (394.71 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY and 378.4 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY), in particular, for Ukraine – by 0.2 to 6.6 mln tonnes and for the USA – by 0.1 to 124.7 (113.34) mln tonnes. For Brazil and Argentina, the forecasts remained unchanged at 169 and 51 million tons, respectively, which is significantly higher than the previous season.
The forecast of global consumption was reduced by 0.26 to 402.72 (383.8) million tons.
The estimate of world exports has been reduced by 0.1 to 181.53 (176.87) million tons, in particular for Ukraine – by 0.1, to 4.2 million tons.
The forecast of world ending stocks was increased by 0.07 to 134.65 million tons (112.37 million tons, 99.7 million tons and 100.3 million tons).
The forecast of world rapeseed production for 2024/25 MY was decreased by 0.12 to 87.44 (89.13) mln tonnes, in particular, for the EU – by 0.2 to 17.45 (19.98) mln tonnes and Ukraine – by 0.1 to 3.6 mln tonnes (although only 3.4 mln tonnes were harvested), but increased for China by 0.2 to 15.8 (16.32) mln tonnes. For Canada and Australia, the forecasts were left at 20 and 5.5 million tons, respectively.
The estimate of world exports of rapeseed was increased by 0.1 to 17.37 (17.81) million tons, in particular for Canada – by 0.35 to 7.35 (6.75) million tons, although the estimate for Australia was reduced by 0.1 to 4.65 million tons and Ukraine – by 0.1 to 3.22 million tons. The import forecast for the EU was increased by 0.1 to 6.7 (5.46) million tons.
The forecast for world ending stocks of rapeseed was lowered by 0.3 to 8.05 (10.15) million tons.
The forecast of global sunseed production in 2024/25 MY was increased by 0.2 to 50.7 (56.05) mln tonnes, in particular, for Argentina – by 0.2, to 4 mln tonnes. Harvest estimates for Ukraine remained unchanged at 12.5 (15.5) mln tonnes, Russia – 16 mln tonnes, EU – 9.5 (10) mln tonnes, and Turkey – 1.55 mln tonnes.
The estimate of global sunseed consumption was increased by 0.4 to 51.3 (56.6) mln tonnes due to increased processing in the EU and Argentina, and the forecast of ending stocks was left at 2.34 (3.18) mln tonnes.
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