USDA forecasts a decline in China’s soybean production

Soybean production in China will decrease by 4.11% in MY 2025/26, to 19.8 million tons. Imports will amount to 106 million tons, according to the report of the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA).

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, soybean production in the 2024-2025 marketing year amounted to 20.65 million tons (minus 0.9% compared to the previous year). Government data indicate a decrease in production due to a decrease in planting area, although the yield increased from 1.99 tons per hectare to 2 tons per hectare.

The average price from October 2024 to February 2025 was 4,007 yuan ($564) per ton, 16% lower than in the same period of the previous year. The trend towards a significant decrease in purchase prices on the domestic market has been ongoing for two years. Growing corn is becoming more profitable for farmers, which means they are inclined to allocate more land for it.

The state will continue to subsidize local soybean production or slightly increase compensation in 2025-2026 compared to 2024-2025 to prevent a reduction in land for this crop, the USDA FAS suggests. The five-year plan envisages domestic production of 23 million tons by 2025. But the Chinese soybean market is becoming more abundant than the food industry needs. In fact, an overhang has formed that cannot compete with cheap imported soybeans, the report notes.

Tags: China, soybean, crop forecast