Rapeseed harvest in Ukraine may be much smaller than USDA forecast

According to USDA experts, in 2025/26 MY, global rapeseed production will increase by 5.2% compared to the current season to 89.56 million tons and will almost reach the level of 2023/4 MY (89.9 million tons), in particular in the EU – by 2.29 million tons to 19.15 (20.45 in 2023/24 MY) million tons, in Canada – by 0.7 to 19.5 (19.2) million tons, in India – by 0.5 to 12 (11.52) million tons, in the Russian Federation – by 0.65 to 5.3 (4.2) million tons, in Australia – by 0.21 to 6.15 (6.05) million tons, while in Ukraine production will decrease by 0.1 million tons to 3.7 (4.75) million tons .

According to optimistic USDA estimates, rapeseed sowing areas in Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY will decrease compared to the previous season from 1.35 to 1.3 million hectares, but the projected yield will increase from 2.81 to 2.85 t/ha.

However, USDA experts did not take into account that the area sown with winter rapeseed in Ukraine, due to dry conditions in August and September, amounted to only 1.16 million hectares (as reported by local analysts), and the dry and frosty weather in March and April led to significant crop losses, as a result of which the area had to be re-sown with other crops.

Based on the assessments of GrainTrade experts, the actual rapeseed area before harvesting in Ukraine will be 800-900 thousand hectares, and the average yield will not exceed 2.4-2.5 tons/hectare, so only 2-2.5 million tons of rapeseed will be harvested, not 3.7 million tons, as predicted by the USDA.

Based on forecasts of a decrease in the rapeseed harvest, traders intensified forward purchases in Ukraine, so during the week the prices for forward rapeseed deliveries to Black Sea ports in July increased by $10-15/t to $515-525/t, while at the end of the MY 2024/25 the maximum price level was $550-565/t.

Rapeseed prices in Ukraine were supported by the growth of August rapeseed futures on the Paris stock exchange by 3.2% per week – to €484/t or $542/t. However, the potential for growth still remains, as the maximum level reached by futures in the current season is €560/t.

USDA also predicts that in the MY 2025/26 the EU will sharply reduce rapeseed imports compared to the current season by 21% from 7 to 5.8 million tons, which will significantly reduce demand. However, Ukraine will remain the main supplier of non-GMO rapeseed to the EU. As of early May, Ukraine had supplied the EU with 2.36 million tons of rapeseed, or 41.5% of imports compared to 3 million tons last year.

July canola futures this week reached a seasonal high of 730 CAD/t or $522/t, but fell to 705 CAD/t amid falling oil prices. Such high prices will encourage farmers to increase canola plantings.

Given the challenging weather conditions and uncertainty with US and Chinese trade policies regarding Canadian canola, the new canola season will be interesting, and prices may initially be higher than in September-October in the event of increased production in Canada.

Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine, prices, rapeseed