USDA experts lowered forecasts for world corn production, consumption and stocks, but for Ukraine, estimates were lowered less than local agencies

In August’s supply and demand balance sheet, USDA experts cut their 2024/25 corn production, consumption and inventory forecasts by more than analysts expected, sending quotes higher after a prolonged decline.

The corn balance for MY 2023/24 was also adjusted:

• The global production forecast was reduced by 1.65 to 1,223.8 million tons, in particular for Argentina – by 2 to 50 (36) million tons, while the estimate for Ukraine was increased by 1.5 to 325 million tons and the EU by 0.4 to 61.45 million tons.
• The estimate of world consumption was reduced by 0.25 to 1218.11 million tons.
• The global export forecast was reduced by 0.36 to 200.59 million tons, in particular for Argentina by 2 to 35 million tons, while for Ukraine the estimate was increased by 1.5 to 29.5 million tons, which corresponds to current export statistics.
• The estimate of final reserves was reduced by 0.61 to 308.5 million tons.

Compared to the July estimates, the new corn balance for MY 2024/25 underwent the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was reduced by 0.61 to 308.52 million tons (302.82 million tons in MY 2023/24).
• The global production forecast was reduced by 4.96 to 1219.82 million tons (1223.81 million tons in MY 2023/24 and 1160 million tons in MY 2022/23), in particular for the EU – by 3.5 to 60.5 (61 .45) million tons, the Russian Federation – by 0.9 to 14.1 (16.6) million tons, Ukraine – only by 0.5 to 27.2 (32.5) million tons, while local analysts estimate the harvest in 24-25 million tons. For the US, the harvest estimate was increased by only 1.1 to 384.7 (389.7) million tons, while analysts predicted it at 386 million tons against the background of improved yields, but the USDA lowered the estimate of corn sowing areas immediately on 324 thousand ha.
• The estimate of world consumption was reduced by 4.43 to 1212.55 (1218.11) million tons, in particular for the EU – by 2.5 to 75.6 (77.1) million tons, the Russian Federation – by 0.5 million tons and the USA – by 0.4 million tons.
• The global export forecast was reduced by 0.34 to 191.47 (200.59) million tons, in particular for Ukraine – by 0.5 to 24 (29.6) million tons, the EU – by 0.5 to 3.5 (4 .4) million tons, the Russian Federation – by 0.4 to 4.2 (6.2) million tons, while the estimate for the USA was increased by 1.9 to 58.42 (57.15) million tons.
• The estimate of world final reserves was reduced by 1.47 to 310.17 (308.52) million tons (although analysts estimated them at 310.9 million tons), in particular for the EU – by 0.6 to 6.9 million tons and the USA – by 0.6 to 52.7 (47.4) million tons, which is also inferior to analysts’ estimates.

On the report, December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 1.6% to $158.1/t (-3.3% compared to the data after the July report), again exceeding the psychological level of $4/bushel.

In the near future, the markets expect another reduction in harvest forecasts in Ukraine and the EU, which will contribute to the recovery of world corn prices.

Tags: corn, prices, USDA Report, crop forecast, Ukraine