USDA experts downgraded the corn planting area forecast supported the futures

In a new quarterly report, USDA experts cut forecasts for U.S. winter wheat and corn planted acreage in 2024 more than analysts expected, leading to a sharp rise in quotes for those crops. At the same time, the forecast of soybean sowing area meets analysts’ expectations.

If in February the USDA estimated the area of corn sowing in the USA at 91 million acres, then in March – already at 90.036 million acres, while the forecast of analysts is 91.776 million acres. It will be recalled that last year the USDA forecast was 91.996 million acres, and 94.64 million acres were actually planted. Experts believe that farmers will reduce the area under corn due to large stocks and low prices for it, as well as the higher profitability of growing soybeans.

Soybean acreage in February was estimated by the USDA at 87.5 million acres, in March it was 86.51 million acres, while analysts forecast it at 86.53 million acres. Last year, the USDA forecast was 87.5 million acres, but 83.6 million acres were actually planted.

The USDA wheat planting area in February was estimated at 47 million acres, in March – at 47.498 million acres, while the forecast of analysts is 47.33 million acres. Last year, the USDA forecast was 49.9 million acres, but 49.575 million acres were actually planted.

At the same time, the forecast of winter wheat sowing area was unexpectedly reduced compared to February estimates from 34.425 to 34.135 million acres, which would be 7.5% less than the previous season, while analysts estimated them at 34.87 million acres.

The USDA forecast spring wheat acreage to increase from 11.2 to 11.335 million acres and durum durum wheat acreage from 1.676 to 2.03 million acres, compared to analysts’ estimates of 10.9 and 1.65 million acres. million acres respectively.

The USDA’s quarterly inventories report showed inventories as of March 1 were in line with analysts’ expectations but well above last year’s levels, adding to pressure on prices.

So, compared to last year, stocks have grown:

• corn – from 188 to 212 million tons (214 million tons according to analysts’ estimate),
• soybeans – from 45.86 to 50.2 (49.75) million tons,
• wheat – from 25.75 to 29.58 (28.4) million tons.

Based on these reports, May futures rose on Friday:

• by 2.3% to $205.9/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago ($275.6/t last year after the release of the report),
• by 1.2% to $215/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City ($309/t),
• by 3.6% to $174/t – for corn ($260/t).

At the same time, HRS durum wheat futures in Minneapolis fell by 0.9% to $237/t ($323/t) and by 0.8% to $437.8/t for soybeans ($553.2/ t).

Tags: corn, prices, USA, sown area