USDA experts cut soybean production and inventory forecasts, but they will still be 9 and 15% higher than last year

USDA’s August balance sheet changes focused mostly on the U.S., but they were in line with analysts’ earlier estimates, so quotes reacted to the new report with a drop as U.S. weather improved.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange on Friday, September soybean futures fell 1.1% to $491.4/t (-8% for the month), and November futures fell 0.8% to $480.4/t (-1.6%).

Compared to the July report, the new balance for soybeans for 2023/24 MY underwent the following changes:

• The estimate of the initial reserves was increased by 0.2 to 103.1 (99.14) million tons as a result of the balance adjustment for 2022/23 MY.
• The global production forecast was reduced by 2.52 to 402.79 (369.74) million tons, in particular for the USA – by 2.58 to 114.45 (116.38) million tons due to a decrease in productivity from 3.46 to 3.42 (3.32) t/ha, while analysts estimated it at 3.447 t/ha.
• The estimate of world exports was reduced by 0.52 to 168.77 (168.95) million tons, in particular for the USA – by 0.68 to 49.67 (53.89) million tons.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was reduced by 1.58 to 119.4 million tons, which is slightly inferior to analysts’ estimates of 120.04 million tons, but significantly exceeds the reserves of the last three seasons – 102.9 million tons in 2022/23 MY, 99.7 million tons in 2021/22 MY and 100.3 million tons in 2020/21 FY.