USDA estimates US all-wheat crop up 9% from 2023

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its Sept. 30 Small Grains 2024 Summary estimated 2024 US all wheat production down 0.5% from the most recent forecast in August but up 9% from 2023.

All-wheat production was estimated at 1.971 billion bushels compared with 1.982 billion bushels in August and 1.804 billion bushels in 2023. As estimated, the 2024 crop was the largest since 2016, when 2.309 billion bushels were harvested. The recent five-year (2019-23) average US wheat outturn was 1.770 billion bushels. The estimate for the 2024 crop was above the average of pre-report trade estimates at 1.966 billion bushels.

The all-wheat planted area was estimated at 46.1 million acres, down 3.5 million acres, or 7%, from 2023, but up 0.7% compared with 2022. The larger production estimate came despite a smaller seeded area because far fewer acres were abandoned than in 2023. All-wheat harvested area was estimated at 38.5 million acres, up 1.4 million acres, or 3.8%, from the prior year, and up 8.4% compared with 2022. The average yield in 2024 was estimated at 51.2 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from last year.

There was no apparent reason to doubt the USDA’s estimates, said Bill Lapp, founder and chief economist with Advanced Economic Solutions, Omaha, Nebraska, US.

“The only way we’ll know if these numbers seem out of line is if we get to the end of the year and there’s some imbalance in ending stocks,” he said. “For now, it looks like a very good number only modestly adjusted from the previous estimate, and it continued to reflect favorable yields in most of the growing area. Spring wheat was a record yield, hard wheat recovered really nicely, soft red winter wheat mostly down because of reduced acreage planted and a return to more normal yields after last year’s record yields. All in all, a pretty good production year for US wheat.”

“The only way we’ll know if these numbers seem out of line is if we get to the end of the year and there’s some imbalance in ending stocks.” – Bill Lapp, founder and chief economist with Advanced Economic Solutions

Winter wheat production was estimated at 1.349 billion bushels, up 9% from 2023. Winter wheat planted area was estimated at 33.4 million acres, down 9% from 2023. Winter wheat harvested area was estimated at 26.1 million acres, up 6.3% from 2023. Winter wheat yield at 51.7 bushels per acre on average was up from 50.6 bushels in 2023 and 47 bushels in 2022.

“We had favorable weather, which gave us good yields, and acreage plays a big role in it, too,” Lapp said.

Except for soft red winter wheat, production estimates of all classes of winter wheat were higher than in 2023. The hard red winter wheat crop was pegged at 770.4 million bushels, up 29%; soft white winter production was 216.5 million bushels, up 18%; and hard white was 19.6 million bushels, up 40%. Production of soft red winter wheat was estimated at 342.4 million bushels, down 24% from 449 million bushels in 2023.

“We got the acreage numbers in January, updated in March and June, and this is the final number,” Lapp said. “No real surprise in how many soft red winter wheat acres; that was well advertised. In 2023, we had such stupendous yields and then this year, kind of a decline back toward normal. Nothing really on the production side there that was shock and awe. This report is not nearly as important as the May report is for winter wheat and then the July report is for spring and durum wheats.”

Production of spring wheat other than durum was estimated at 542 million bushels, up 8% from 2023. Other spring wheat planted acres were 10.6 million, down 5% from 2023. Also down 5% from last year was spring wheat harvested acres at 10.3 million. Spring wheat yield was 52.5 bushels per acre on average, up 14% from 46 bushels in 2023 and the highest ever in records dating to 1919. The previous record-high average yield was 48.3 bushels per acre in both 2018 and 2019.

Other spring wheat production was higher across all classes. The hard red spring crop was estimated at 503 million bushels, with soft white spring at 30 million and hard white at 9.5 million.

Durum wheat production in 2024 was estimated at 80.1 million bushels, up 35% from 2023, based on an average yield of 39.3 bushels per acre, up from 37 bushels last year. Fewer acres seeded to durum were abandoned in 2024. Planted durum acres were 2.064 million this year, up 23% from 2023, and 2.036 million acres were harvested, up 27% from 2023.

“The durum final production number was a little bit of a surprise, but when you look at the total number being up so sharply, plus Canada having the big crop, if we can get farmers to sell durum to the market, we’re certain to have ample to excessive supplies this year,” Lapp said.

The USDA in its Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report estimated Sept. 1 wheat stocks at 1.986 billion bushels, up 12% from a year earlier and above the average trade expectation on 1.973 billion bushels. Of the total, 664 million bushels were on farms and 1.322 billion bushels were off farms at mills, processors, elevators, terminals and warehouses. Indicated June-August disappearance of wheat was 682 million bushels, up 12% from the same period last year.

“That gives us a pretty good idea of how much wheat we’ve had, since stocks are the accumulation of how much we produce, what our imports were, what our beginning stocks were on June 1, and then you deduct what we milled and what the exports might be,” Lapp said. “From that you either have stocks or you have feed and residual use. This report suggested feed and residual might be a little bit lower than USDA is estimating at 110 million bushels. There’s a good correlation between the feed and residual during June, July and August, which we ascertain from the Sept. 1 stocks and the final total figures for that entire crop year.”

Sept. 1 durum stocks were estimated at 67 million bushels, including 47 million bushels on farms and 20 million bushels off farms. June-August disappearance was indicated at 33.8 million bushels, up 13% from the same period a year earlier.

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Tags: crop forecast, wheat, USA