USDA divides attention but brings surprises again; Brazilian crop remains high

The February report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divided the market’s interests last week, but once again attracted attention by increasing US stocks and cutting little of the Brazilian crop.

USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must hit 4.165 bln bushels in 2023/24, equivalent to 113.35 mln tons. Yield was indicated at 50.6 bushels per acre. The numbers were maintained compared to January.

Ending stocks are projected at 315 mln bushels or 8.57 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 282 mln bushels or 7.67 mln tons. In January, the forecast was 280 mln or 7.62 mln tons.

USDA repeated the crush estimate at 2.3 bln bushels. Exports had their estimate reduced from 1.755 to 1.72 bln bushels.

Regarding the global picture, USDA projected a global soybean crop in 2023/24 of 398.21 mln tons. In January, the forecast was 398.98 mln. Ending stocks were boosted from 114.6 mln to 116 mln tons. The market was expecting 112.9 mln tons.

USDA projects the US crop at 113.3 mln tons, the same number as the previous report, as already mentioned.

The Brazilian crop was projected at 156 mln tons, down 1 mln tons from the previous estimate, which “disappointed” the market, which was expecting a larger cut. For Argentina, the forecast is for the production of 50 mln tons, unchanged. The market was expecting 153 mln for Brazil and 50.8 mln for Argentina.

China is expected to import 102 mln tons, repeating the December forecast.

Tags: USDA, Brazil, estimate, soybeans, US, Production, crop, yield, stocks, China, Market, exports, crush