USDA analysts raised the forecast of Ukrainian wheat harvest and exports

According to the USDA, the global wheat harvest in 2023/24 MY will be 787.3 mln tonnes, down 6.03 mln tonnes from the previous forecast. Total wheat exports are expected at 207.3 mln tonnes (-2.05 mln tonnes). Experts estimated the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world at 258.6 million tons (-7 million tons).

This is evidenced by the data of the USDA report for September.

The USDA experts increased the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY to 22.5 mln tonnes (21 mln tonnes in the previous report). The export estimate was increased by 0.5 mln tonnes to 11 mln tonnes. The forecast of ending stocks was lowered by 0.02 million tons to 4.11 million tons.

The estimate of wheat production in the U.S. in the new report remained unchanged at 47.2 million tons, the forecast of exports and ending stocks also remained unchanged at 19.05 million tons and 16.75 million tons, respectively.

Forecast for the major wheat exporters for 2023/24 MY (September figures compared to August):

The USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in 2023/24 MY at 137 mln tonnes, the imports are estimated at 11 mln tonnes (-1 mln tonnes). The ending stocks will amount to 132.92 mln tonnes (-2 mln tonnes).

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