US wheat market: 2025 recap and outlook for 2026

Summer wheat has been harvested across the United States, and winter wheat is already in the ground. Julia Debes, Director of Communications and Stakeholder Outreach at U.S. Wheat Associates, reported that U.S. wheat export inspections have shown a roughly 20% year-over-year increase since the start of the marketing year. This growth has been driven by a recovery in hard red winter wheat production and competitive pricing on the global market.

At the same time, U.S. wheat producers face strong competition from Canada, Russia, Argentina, and Australia. Nevertheless, new countries are beginning to import American wheat, including Nigeria, South Africa, and Peru. Traditional markets such as Mexico have also increased their purchases, reflecting growing demand for U.S. wheat worldwide.

In 2025, U.S. wheat planting areas slightly decreased, particularly for hard red winter wheat, but yields improved. In states like South Dakota, farmers have shifted some acreage to other crops such as corn and soybeans, which offer higher yields per acre. Over the past 40 years, U.S. wheat yields have increased by 69% while using less water and land, contributing to soil conservation and sustainable farming practices.

For the 2026 winter wheat crop, South Dakota is expecting a modest reduction in planted acreage, while other states are likely to maintain stable levels. Current price conditions and economic factors are prompting farmers to take a cautious approach, awaiting the next shifts in global supply.

Demand for wheat continues to rise. Long-term projections indicate that while global production is increasing, consumption is also growing—a trend expected to continue through at least 2050.

Tags: wheat, USA