A recent phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping reignited speculation across global grain markets, even though agriculture was not mentioned in the discussion. According to sources, Trump did not bring up agricultural exports during last month’s call — a disappointment for U.S. farmers hoping for a breakthrough in trade relations. Meanwhile, U.S. wheat exports have reached their highest level in a decade, and corn shipments are off to a record start in the new marketing year. Soybean exports, however, continue to lag due to a lack of Chinese purchases — a major blow given China’s role as the top buyer of U.S. soy.
Still, a glimmer of hope has emerged among soybean producers. Trump’s recent remarks, which focused directly on soybeans, have led analysts to believe that any progress in negotiations with China may prioritize soybean trade. “President Trump’s comments last week, specifically referencing soybeans, suggest that any deal or partial progress in trade talks could center on soybean purchases,” experts said. Chinese importers have reportedly booked about 7.4 million tons of soybeans — mostly from South America — for October, covering 95% of their demand, while U.S. farmers are losing billions in sales amid the ongoing trade dispute.
Adding further intrigue is the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has suspended official USDA reporting. This information gap could allow China to quietly purchase soybeans without the usual daily or weekly monitoring. “Analysts at Bottom Line noted that China could make soybean purchases during the shutdown to avoid scrutiny — but the key word is ‘could’,” specialists commented. USDA forecasts that U.S. soybean exports in 2025/26 will decline unless the dispute is resolved, as China has already cut its imports of American soybeans by 51% year-over-year, shifting purchases to Brazil and Argentina.
Meanwhile, the USDA’s monthly crop report scheduled for Thursday has been canceled, forcing grain markets to rely on private forecasts. “Due to the shutdown, grain trade will depend on updated private estimates,” analysts said. These forecasts remain close to USDA’s September figures, putting national corn yields at 185.5–186.5 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53.2–53.9 bushels. The USDA shutdown has also frozen farmer payments, loan processing, and support programs, adding financial pressure to a sector already burdened by record debt levels.
Amid uncertainty, markets are watching closely for any signs of renewed agricultural trade between the U.S. and China. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a $10 billion aid package for farmers, funded by tariff revenues, while an upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea this October could prove pivotal. Farmers, who have lost their largest customer, are seeking new export opportunities in Asia, Africa, and Europe — but without a breakthrough with China, the industry faces deepening strain. Optimists hope that soybeans will once again take center stage, restoring U.S. producers’ place in the global market.
