US soybean exports to rise despite lack of Chinese purchases

According to the USDA’s August export sales report, the U.S. sold 7.2 million tons of soybeans, down nearly 3 million tons from a year earlier. China, which is usually a key buyer, is missing from the list this year. Instead, the main buyers are Mexico, Pakistan, Taiwan, Egypt and Japan. University of Arkansas economist Hunter Biram said the lack of purchases from China is putting additional pressure on the soybean market. Oil World experts predict an increase in U.S. soybean exports from mid-September to December, despite the lack of Chinese demand. They estimate that the U.S. exported 1.95 million tons of soybeans in August, up 0.23 million tons from a year earlier. Between June and August, U.S. exporters made up for the loss of the Chinese market by increasing supplies to Mexico, Egypt, Taiwan, Vietnam and the EU, reaching a three-year high of 5.2 million tons.

Some farmers may decide to hold onto soybeans until prices improve, but that could add pressure on ending stocks. The USDA forecasts soybean stocks for 2025/26 to be 290 million bushels, down slightly from last year.

Corn and rice are also feeling the impact of market conditions. Corn exports remain steady thanks to Mexican purchases, but record U.S. production is pushing down prices. Rice demand remains weak, with exports half the size of last year and prices at a five-year low.

Tags: China, soybean, USA