US soybean exports could fall 20% without China deal

US soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the United States and China fail to reach a deal in their trade dispute limiting US soybeans from its largest market, according to agribusiness consultants AgResource on Wednesday.

US soybeans exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a deal, AgResource President Dan Basse told on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva.

At the same time, US soybeans farm gate prices – the average price paid to farmers – may collapse to $9.10 bushel in 2025/26, compared to $10.25 a bushel forecast by the US Department of Agriculture, Basse said.

“It’s important that any US/China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality pressuring US farm income. The clock is ticking,” he said.

The temporary truce in the US-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help US farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make US soybeans competitive.

“The truce helps but Brazil will have an additional 20 million metric tons of soybeans to export on September 1,” Basse said.

China has been a critical market for US farmers representing more than half of US soybean exports in the most recent marketing year.

However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs.

China, the world’s largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil.