US risks losing its agricultural superpower status as trade wars reshape global markets

The United States risks losing its position as the world’s leading agricultural exporter as the long-term effects of Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to reshape global markets, Financial Times reports. In 2025, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $171 bln, just $2 bln more than Brazil’s, highlighting how closely the South American country is catching up.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), many major U.S. crops are expected to become unprofitable next year. Estimated losses are $138 per acre for soybeans, $167 for corn, $145 for wheat, and $406 for cotton. Meanwhile, Brazil has already become the world’s largest producer of soybeans, beef and poultry, and has also overtaken the United States as the leading cotton exporter. In the first half of 2026, Brazil’s agricultural exports increased by 6% to a record $87 billion.

The newspaper notes that the U.S.-China trade conflict, which began with tariffs introduced in 2018, fundamentally changed global agricultural trade flows. China responded by reducing purchases of U.S. soybeans and shifting imports toward Brazil. As a result, Brazilian exporters rapidly expanded their share of the Chinese market, while many U.S. farmers permanently lost key overseas customers.

U.S. farm groups warn that government subsidies cannot compensate for the loss of export markets. Farmers argue that the real problem is not financial support but unpredictable trade policies that undermine years of relationship-building with international buyers. Former USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber said Brazil reached a global market share years earlier than expected, calling it a clear consequence of trade wars.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, however, rejects the pessimistic outlook, forecasting a record $174 bln in agricultural exports in 2026. The department says the administration is expanding existing markets and developing new export destinations to reduce dependence on any single buyer. Nevertheless, many farmers argue that continued tariff uncertainty and new trade barriers are weakening the long-term competitiveness of U.S. agriculture on the global market.

Tags: China, corn, export, Brazil, soybean, wheat, agricultural products, USA, duties