US and Australian experts have given conflicting forecasts for the rapeseed crop
Rapeseed in Australia will cover 8.27 million acres (3.35 million hectares), 4% less than last year. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) estimate was released by Western Producer on April 18.
If the drought in Western Australia continues for another month, the bank estimates a significant reduction in the crop is possible. The state produced 44% of Australia’s rapeseed in the 2023-2024 season. The second and third places in rapeseed production are shared by New South Wales and Victoria.
Conditions in New South Wales look “phenomenal” ahead of the fall planting season. In Victoria, conditions are also favorable, but farmers are hoping for rain by June.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting above-average rainfall in New South Wales from May to July, but below average in many parts of Victoria and Western Australia. “If the drought in Western Australia and Canada continues, carryover residuals could be the lowest in eight years. We expect prices to rise,” the bank’s experts wrote.
The Commonwealth Bank forecasts Australian rapeseed production of 5.67 million tons for the 2024-2025 season, about the same as last year. Experts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) give a higher estimate of 6.5 million tons, 14% more than last year, or the third largest crop in history.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects an increase in rapeseed acreage in Australia due to the expectation of higher prices. The USDA estimates rapeseed will cover 9.39 million acres (3.8 million hectares) – 8.6% more than last year.
Australia is the world’s second-largest exporter of rapeseed after Canada. According to the USDA, 70% of Canadian canola exports went to the European Union for biodiesel production. In recent years, there has been a “significant shift” away from the EU toward Japan, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and Mexico.
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