US 2025 wheat a good milling crop overall

The 2025 US wheat crop has been harvested, and the portions not sold off the combine have been tucked into bins as producers and commercial elevators increasingly shift their focus to row crops and hope for wheat price increases. Hundreds of samples of each of the major wheat classes have been lab tested for quality data and milling characteristics. For most classes, it was an average crop with minor quality challenges.

A look at the 2025 US wheat crop by class:

Hard red winter wheat

The USDA on Sept. 30 in its Small Grains Summary 2025 estimated hard red winter wheat production in 2025 at 804.4 million bushels, up 35.3 million bushels from the August estimate and up 31 million bushels, or 4%, from 773.4 million bushels in 2024. The 2025 outturn was the largest for hard red winter wheat since 844.9 million bushels were produced in 2019 and compared with 660.8 million bushels as the five-year average production.

Plains Grains, Inc. tested 566 samples of hard red winter wheat, 13% more than expected. PGI found the crop averaged 11.4% moisture (10.9% as the recent five-year average), 12.1% in protein (12.9%), 13.8% in dry basis protein (14.6%), 0.6% dockage (0.6%), 31 grams in thousand-kernel weight (30.6 grams), 369 seconds in falling number (358 seconds) and 60.1 pounds per bushel in test weight (60.4 pounds). The crop received an average grade of No. 1 hard red winter wheat, same as the five-year average.

A good milling crop was suggested by the laboratory milling extraction average of 75.8%, US Wheat Associates (USW) said Sept. 12 in its final harvest report for the class.

“Flour ash averages 0.55% (14% moisture basis), which falls within the typical commercial range, and damaged starch content averages 6.1%,” USW said. “Dough property analysis shows farinograph absorption at 58.6% (14% moisture basis), with a development time of 4.9 minutes, stability of 8.9 minutes, and a mixing tolerance index (MTI) of 29.3 Brabender unites (BU). Overall, the composites tested exhibit good dough strength and extensibility. Baking tests yield an average absorption of 61.9%, loaf volume of 797.5 cubic centimeters (cc), and a specific volume of 5.3 cc per gram. The loaf volume is slightly lower than last year, attributed to lower protein levels in this year’s crop.”

Soft red winter wheat

The USDA on Sept. 30 estimated soft red winter wheat production in 2025 at 352.9 million bushels, up 13.5 million bushels, or 4%, from the August estimate and up 8.5 million bushels, or 2.5%, from 344.4 million bushels in 2024. The recent five-year average soft red winter wheat outturn was 350.9 million bushels.

Great Plains Analytical Laboratory (GPAL) received and tested 219 of an expected 250 soft red winter wheat samples. GPAL said the crop averaged 12.8% moisture (13.3% as the five-year average), 9.5% in protein (9.4%), 10.7% dry basis protein (10.7%), 0.5% dockage (0.3%), 32.7 grams in thousand-kernel weight (35.9 grams), 298 seconds in falling number (320 seconds), and 58.6 pounds per bushel in test weight (59.6 pounds). The average grade across the samples was No. 2 soft red winter wheat, same as the average.

In its Aug. 8 final harvest report for the class, USW noted “the average flour protein is 7.8% compared to last year’s 8%. Wet gluten is measured at 20.4%, lower than last year’s 22.4%, but similar to the average. Farinograph absorption is 53% compared to last year’s 52.5%. For solvent retention capacity (SRC) data, lactic acid is 119, sucrose is 104 and sodium carbonate is 75. All flour data is reported on a 14% moisture basis. For end-product data, cookie width/thickness is 9.3 compared to last year’s 9.5 and pup loaf volume is 603 cc compared to last year’s 640 cc with a specific volume of 6.8 cc per gram.”

Soft white wheat

The USDA, in its Small Grains Summary 2025, estimated the soft white winter wheat crop at 230 million bushels, up 3.9 million bushels from the August estimate and up 13 million bushels, or 6%, from 217 million bushels in 2024. The hard white winter wheat crop was estimated at 14.2 million bushels, down 6.3 million bushels from the August estimate and down 5.4 million bushels, or 28%, from 19.6 million bushels in 2024.

Wheat Marketing Center, on the basis of 411 of an expected 390 expected samples from Idaho, Oregon and Washington, said the soft white crop averaged 10% in protein (10.3% as the recent five-year average), 317 seconds in falling number (336 seconds) and 61 pounds per bushel in test weight (60.8 pounds). The average grade was No. 1 soft white wheat, same as last year and the five-year average grade.

“Flour composites continue to demonstrate typical soft white wheat functionality,” USW said in its Sept. 12 final harvest report for the class. “Farinograph characteristics are suitably weak for soft white wheat, with absorption at 50.6% (14% moisture basis), peak time of 1.1 minutes, stability time of 1.8 minutes, and a mixing tolerance index of 132 BU. SRC profiles span the expected range for soft white end products, from cakes to blends for pan breads. SRC values include lactic acid at 95.3%, sodium carbonate at 74.8%, and sucrose at 101.6%, all reported on a 14% moisture basis.”

Hard red spring wheat

The USDA on Sept. 30 estimated hard red spring wheat production in 2025 at 458.3 million bushels, up 8.9 million bushels from the August forecast and up 46.5 million bushels, or 10%, from 504.8 million bushels in 2024. The recent five-year average hard red spring wheat outturn was 517 million bushels.

“Overall, we had a pretty good crop,” said Erica Olson, market development and research manager with the North Dakota Wheat Commission. “What I’m hearing is good yields in general, above average yields, but not record yields, and we’ve seen that reflected in USDA data that pared down the spring wheat yield estimate a little bit. A few spotty areas that unfortunately were a bit drier than normal, I’ve heard some disappointing yields, but not anything real drastic. Overall good yields out there and good production.”

USW on Oct. 3 issued its final harvest report for 2025. Within were the final quality and yield statistics for the class. With 448 of an expected 448 samples collected, the hard red spring wheat crop averaged 14.3% in protein (14.5% as the five-year average), 61.5 pounds per bushel in test weight (61.4 pounds), 12.2% in moisture ( 12%), 0.6% in dockage (0.6%), 0.5% damage (0.3%), 34.1 grams in thousand-kernel weight (31.3 grams) and 415 seconds in falling number (371 seconds). The average grade was No. 1 northern spring wheat, same as last year and the five-year average.

USW said “average vitreous kernel content is 60%, supporting a grade of No. 1 Northern Spring. While the dark hard vitreous kernel content (DHV) was lower in the early weeks of sampling, it has risen gradually; however, it remains seven percentage points below last year and six percentage points below the five-year average. Overall, the final data indicate an average crop with slightly lower DHV. The quality lab at North Dakota State University is completing flour and dough testing on the composites for the full hard red spring wheat regional crop quality report and USW’s 2025 Crop Quality Report.”

Northern durum

Durum production in 2025 was estimated by the USDA on Sept. 30 at 86.2 million bushels, down 1.2 million bushels, or 1.4%, from the August forecast but up 6.2 million bushels, or 7.7%, from 80.1 million bushels in 2024. The durum harvested area was estimated at 2.123 million acres, up 4.3% from 2024, and the average yield climbed to 40.6 bushels per acre compared with 39.3 bushels an acre last year.

USW issued its final weekly update on northern durum Oct. 3. With 111 of 134 expected samples tested, North Dakota State University lab said 2025 crop averaged 11.9% in moisture (11.2% as the recent five-year average), 14.3% in protein (14.1%), 1% dockage (1%), 42.2 grams in thousand-kernel weight (42.7 grams), 366 seconds in falling number (404 seconds), 1.9% damage (0.8%) and 61.6 pounds per bushel in test weight (61.3 pounds). Average grade was No. 2 hard amber durum (HAD), which compared with No. 1 HAD last year and as the average grade.

“That last chunk of the durum crop was probably a bit concerning given the amount of rain that fell,” Olson said. “It was sitting out in the field for a while, so it was a bit challenging to get that harvested. I think the main factor for that number two grade was the damage level.”

USW added, “There were minimal to no changes in grading factors compared to last week. However, total damage did increase from 1.9% to 2.1%, resulting in the overall grade lowering from US No. 1 HAD to US No. 2 HAD. The quality laboratory at North Dakota State University is in the process of finalizing tests on composites for inclusion in the northern durum regional crop quality report and USW’s 2025 Crop Quality Report.”

Tags: US, Production, wheat, crop, soft red winter wheat, Hard Red Winter-wheat, durum, soft white wheat, hard red spring wheat