Ukrainian wheat prices seen rising amid tight supply, producers and analyst say

Ukraine’s domestic and export wheat prices are likely to rise in the coming weeks due to much smaller wheat stocks, major agricultural producers’ group the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC) and analysts said on Wednesday.

The UAC said in a statement that wheat stocks totalled 18.7 million metric tons as of Sept. 1, much less than the average of more than 20 million tons in previous seasons.

It said that in the second half of September the price of milling wheat may rise to up to $205 per ton CPT (carriage paid to) from $190-$200 currently.

Despite poor weather and economic difficulties caused by the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s wheat crop was around 22 million tons in 2024, the same as in 2023. But high stocks allowed hefty exports of 18.3 million tons in 2023/24.

This season, wheat exports should not exceed 16.2 million tons, in line with an agreement between the government and agricultural associations.

“If exports continue at the level of 2 million tons per month, wheat may be enough until March-April next year. However, objectively speaking, the volume of wheat for export will be small and usually the price rises due to a decrease in supply,” UAC said.

“Traders report that there are few offers for wheat… in September there are almost no such (forward) contracts. The market will operate predominantly on the basis of spot deals,” it noted.

Ukraine’s farm ministry’s data showed that wheat exports had reached 4.3 million tons as of Sept. 11 versus 2.5 million tons as of Sept. 13, 2023.

Farm ministry officials have said milling wheat dominated exports and this forced Ukrainian millers to urge the government to limit the sales.

Millers said the share of food wheat in the 2024 harvest was around 30% and that the local market could face a lack of high quality flour if food wheat exports exceed 4.8 million tons.

Ukrainian officials have indicated they are ready to discuss stronger measures to restrict milling wheat exports when the volume of such shipments exceeds 3.5 million tons.

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Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat, crop, stocks, milling wheat