Ukrainian wheat market. Export geography has changed drastically

Ukrainian Wheat Exports Remain Stable This Season Despite Challenges and Changes in Trade Flows

This was reported by the CEO of ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers, Kristina Serebryakova.

She noted that between July and March of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine, according to official data, exported nearly 13 million tons of wheat, which is just slightly less than 13.9 million tons in the previous year.

“However, behind these overall figures lies a fundamental reshaping of the export geography, which includes three key changes in Ukraine’s wheat trade,” the expert added.

Kristina Serebryakova pointed out that Spain remains a leader, but volumes are declining.

“Supplies dropped to 3.1 million tons from 4.4 million tons the previous year. The reason is reduced import demand due to last year’s high grain harvest in the country,” she explained.

At the same time, Turkey is disappearing from the map of Ukrainian exports.

“Last year, Turkey was the third-largest market for Ukrainian wheat, but this season its purchases have almost disappeared. Exports dropped to 39,000 tons compared to nearly 1 million tons last year. The main factors are intense competition with Russian wheat and increased import restrictions, which effectively pushed Ukraine out of the Turkish market,” the broker explained.

Meanwhile, while Europe and Turkey reduced imports, countries in Asia and North Africa ramped up purchases, taking advantage of the Ukrainian export corridor in the Black Sea.

“In Asia, Indonesia became the main driver of growth—its imports of Ukrainian wheat doubled to 1.56 million tons, pushing the country to second place among the largest buyers. Vietnam also more than doubled its imports to 886,000 tons, while demand from Thailand grew sixfold, reaching 581,000 tons. In the North African market, Egypt remains the key buyer, importing 1.54 million tons of Ukrainian wheat, up from 1.22 million tons last year, securing third place among importers. Algeria showed the highest growth—its purchases increased to 1.4 million tons from just 270,000 tons last year. A significant rise in imports was also recorded in Tunisia, where deliveries exceeded 675,000 tons compared to 299,000 tons last year,” the expert summarized.

Tags: Black Sea, imports, North Africa, Market, Asia, Ukraine, exports, Turkey, Spain, wheat, purchases