Ukrainian pig farmers deny devastating ASF impact

Panic moods about African Swine Fever (ASF) can have a manipulative nature, the Ukrainian Pig Farmers Association told newspaper Delo. The situation in the Ukrainian pig industry is actually far from hopeless.

The statement follows an apocalyptic forecast by the meat processors association, suggesting that the country could lose up to 50% of its pig population to ASF. The Ukrainian Farmers Association calculated that since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine had 67 ASF outbreaks, 46% more than the previous year.

The dynamic looks worrying, but the figure is not a record for Ukraine, commented Oksana Jurchenko, chief of the pig farmers association. At the peak of the disease spread in 2017, the country registered 166 outbreaks.

The spread is facilitated by farms where basic veterinary safety rules are not followed, Jurchenko admitted, citing backyard farms run by Ukrainian schools or prisons, where the practice of feeding pigs with food waste is still widespread. In addition, the ASF dynamics are largely influenced by an influx of new, inexperienced players in this segment.

Difficulties in exporting grain in 2022 and 2023 drove prices to record lows. Against this background, quite a few farmers opted for breeding pigs. “Thanks to the favourable market situation and cheap grain as of June 2024 Ukrainian pig population stabilised at the pre-war level of 5.2 million heads,” Jurchenko said.

A gradual rise in feed prices and ASF outbreaks will drive some farmers out of business, said Alexander Golizdra, director of the communication department at KSG Agro, a prominent Ukrainian pig farmer.

However, Ukrainian meat processors are convinced the pig industry is braced for massive turbulence in the coming months. According to Nikolay Babenko, head of the Ukrainian Meat Association, the country lost around 500,000 pigs due to ASF in the last few years. By the end of 2024, the pig population in the country could plummet by 30% to 50%, which would drive the pork price to a record height of UAH 300 ($7.2) per kg, against UAH 190 – 200 ($4.6 – $4.8) now.

Golizdra believes the industry could lose up to 30% of pigs, adding that counting losses is difficult in Ukraine since even large farms are reluctant to report ASF outbreaks to the veterinary watchdogs.

Jurchenko admitted that there is no publicly available official information about the losses pig farmers suffered, and all available figures are farmers’ assessments. However, Jurchenko said she would be cautious about forecasts of huge losses in the number of pigs in Ukraine since the seasonal peak of ASF outbreaks ends in November. “Despite all these claims, the industry keeps operating,” Jurchenko emphasised.

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Tags: price, African Swine Fever, ASF, Pigs, pig industry, outbreaks, Ukrainian pig farmers association, Ukraine, pork