Ukrainian grain exports expected to drop

There will be less competition from one of the main players in the global grain market in the new crop year.

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is forecasting an 18 percent drop in the country’s grains and oilseeds exports in 2024-25.

Ukraine is expected to ship out 43.7 million tonnes of its key crops, down from an estimated 53.1 million tonnes this year.

And that is assuming that the Ukrainian sea corridor and the Danube River route operate smoothly.

MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett said it remains to be seen how big an impact Ukraine’s woes will have on global grain markets.

He noted that there is expected to be a big rebound in corn and soybean production in the United States.

Russia and the European Union also appear to have big wheat crops on the way.

“We’re making up for exports that we’re losing from Ukraine with other origins,” said Burnett, although he noted that crops are still a long way from the finish line.

UGA said the drop in exports will be due in part to a smaller harvest. The association is forecasting 76.1 million tonnes of grain and oilseed production in Ukraine, down from last year’s crop of 82.6 million tonnes.

“The potential decline in the new season’s harvest will be caused by a reduction in the area under crops, mainly cereals, due to unfavorable global price conditions and relatively expensive export logistics,” the association said in a news release.

Production will be well below the 2021-22 pre-war bumper crop of 104 million tonnes.

Corn exports in 2024-25 are expected to plunge by 5.5 million tonnes to 20.5 million tonnes.

“Farmers are suffering losses due to too low purchase prices for the crop, driven by a decline in world prices,” said UGA.

Wheat exports will be down three million tonnes compared to last year, falling to 13 million tonnes.

Barley shipments will decline by 500,000 tonnes to two million tonnes.

Ukraine’s oilseeds will fare much better. Canola exports are expected to remain unchanged at 3.6 million tonnes, while soybean shipments will rise to four million tonnes from 3.3 million tonnes.

Sunflower exports will fall 150,000 tonnes to 250,000 tonnes.

Burnett said Canadian farmers are most interested in Ukraine’s canola exports. That crop tends to move by rail into the European Union, so it hasn’t been affected by the Black Sea port problems as much as wheat and corn.

But Ukraine’s exports to the EU are also being hindered by protests in Poland, where farmers believe that the huge influx of Ukrainian grain is resulting in depressed domestic prices and congested transportation logistics.

Members of the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC) have been bringing agricultural equipment destroyed by Russian forces to the border with Poland so that Polish protestors can fully understand the extent of the problem they are dealing with.

“Behind every combine or tractor there is a tragic history of the farm, sometimes with human losses,” UAC head Andriy Dykun said in a press release.

“We pay a very high price for each grain.”

The UAC estimates US$5.8 billion of agricultural machinery has been destroyed in the two-year war, with 181,000 pieces of equipment either partially destroyed or completely damaged.

The World Bank estimates there has been $80 billion in total losses to Ukraine’s agriculture sector since the war began.

“We understand the situation of Polish farmers is difficult, but it is not Ukraine’s fault,” said Dykun.

“There is an overproduction of grain on the world markets. In the EU alone, the surplus of wheat is 36 million tonnes, and since last year’s harvest, it has fallen in price by 25 percent.”

Tags: sunflower, grain, barley, Grains, oilseeds, Production, wheat, Market, Ukraine, Ukrainian Grain Association, exports, corn