Ukrainian corn exports are focused on the Mediterranean and European destinations

Corn quotes on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have shifted downwards during the week: the May contract has lost more than 11 cents/bu, returning to the levels of testing local lows. This is reported by analysts at Spike Brokers.

The pressure is generated by favorable weather conditions in the USA and a quick start to sowing, which reduces the weather premium, as well as slightly higher global stocks according to USDA estimates. An additional factor is the reduction of long positions of funds, which strengthens the downward movement.

The fundamental background in the short term remains neutral-negative: the market is setting a scenario for an early and even sowing campaign in the US, while South America continues to supply significant volumes to the world market. As a result, the stock market is losing support from the weather factor, which previously acted as a key driver. At the same time, the physical market is demonstrating a much more restrained reaction.

In Ukraine, export prices have fallen by only $2 per week (CPT Odesa: $216 → $214), which indicates the relative stability of demand. FOB positions remain competitive at around $226-228, maintaining a temporary premium to American origin.

In the export structure, 816.6 thousand tons of corn have been shipped since the beginning of April, with Turkey (265 thousand tons), Italy (148 thousand tons), Spain, the Netherlands, Tunisia and Belgium as key destinations. The geography of supplies is concentrated around the Mediterranean and European destinations, which supports the stability of physical demand.

An additional pressure factor is the situation in the ports. Over the past week, there has been an accumulation of corn in the port infrastructure against the background of intensive cargo approaches. Local congestion of individual terminals limits the speed of unloading ground transport and leads to a congestion of transport.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export