Ukraine vs Russia. Sunoil Outlook 2025/26

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Global sunflower crop in 2024/25 was the weakest in four seasons (52.4 M mt); Ukraine 12.0 M mt (−20% y/y), russia 16.9 M mt (−1.7% y/y).

In 2022- 2025 Ukraine pivoted to the EU. However, India stays the prize market for SFO. Although russia captured India, this country in 2024/25 imported 755 K mt of Ukrainian SFO (+42% vs 2023/24), and the imports from Ukraine previously were more than 2 M mt per season.

China imported 1.6-1.7 M mt of SFO before the 2022 with russian share higher compared to Ukraine. However, in 2022-2025 China leans cheaper SBO/palm, cutting SFO share vs SBO/palm on price.

Trade flows and competition

• EU remains Ukraine’s core destination, quality and logistics decide basis.
• russian SFO exports to India and China keeps growing, supported recently also by political and geo economic factors.
• India: price, credit terms, and better logistics reliability drive the winner.
• China: SFO must cheapen vs SBO/palm to regain share.
• Turkey may partially swing back to Ukraine, tariff reset and bigger quota may increase SFO imports.

Total UA and RU SFO supply will likely to increase in 2025/26.

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Tags: Ukraine, Russia, sunflower oil, export, prices