Ukraine vs Russia. Sunoil Outlook 2025/26
UkrAgroConsult
Article author:
Global sunflower crop in 2024/25 was the weakest in four seasons (52.4 M mt); Ukraine 12.0 M mt (−20% y/y), russia 16.9 M mt (−1.7% y/y).
In 2022- 2025 Ukraine pivoted to the EU. However, India stays the prize market for SFO. Although russia captured India, this country in 2024/25 imported 755 K mt of Ukrainian SFO (+42% vs 2023/24), and the imports from Ukraine previously were more than 2 M mt per season.
China imported 1.6-1.7 M mt of SFO before the 2022 with russian share higher compared to Ukraine. However, in 2022-2025 China leans cheaper SBO/palm, cutting SFO share vs SBO/palm on price.
Trade flows and competition
- EU remains Ukraine’s core destination, quality and logistics decide basis.
- russian SFO exports to India and China keeps growing, supported recently also by political and geo economic factors.
- India: price, credit terms, and better logistics reliability drive the winner.
- China: SFO must cheapen vs SBO/palm to regain share.
- Turkey may partially swing back to Ukraine, tariff reset and bigger quota may increase SFO imports.
Total UA and RU SFO supply will likely to increase in 2025/26.
Full version of the article is available to subscribers of the Weekly ‘BLACK SEA & DANUBE OILSEED REPORT’ by UkrAgroConsult.
Request a free a sample report and apply for subscription here.
Be confident with your business and trade strategy based on professional analysis and forecasts of the Black Sea agri market.
Read also
2026-2030 Economic Outlook: New Business Architecture
Competition and Biofuel Demand Are Transforming the Global Oilseed Market
China uses strategic sulphur reserves as a tactical buffer amid fertilizer supply ...
Rainfall disrupts Brazil’s soybean harvest, but output remains record-high
Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia are the leaders among buyers of Ukrainian wheat
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon