Ukraine. Traders manipulate rapeseed prices in anticipation of the imposition of duties

As of July 21 of this year, the export of rapeseed of the new crop from Ukraine amounted to 27 thousand tons.

This is reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, founded within the VAR.

“These are the first volumes of the new crop that have already felt pressure from traders — attempts to artificially lower purchase prices are being recorded on the market despite the lack of objective prerequisites for this,” experts note.

According to PUSK estimates, traders are trying to “press” prices even before the President officially signs the law on the introduction of a 10% duty on soybean and rapeseed exports. If it is signed, the duty will come into effect on September 1, 2025. However, some traders are already manipulating the situation to make money on purchases at lower prices.

“The duty is not yet in effect, but prices are already being lowered. This is an element of unfair trading practices aimed at maximizing profits. There are currently no economic reasons for lowering prices,” PUSK analysts emphasize.

Due to weather conditions, this year’s rapeseed harvest campaign is being postponed, experts note. At the same time, there are risks of yield losses due to heavy rainfall. On average, the yield in the country can be up to 2 t/ha. In addition, there are problems with rapeseed stocks, which additionally creates pressure on the market.

“The European market is showing positive dynamics: stock quotes on Euronext have increased from 470 to 490 euros/t. In the event of a stable trend, it is possible to reach the psychological mark of 500 euros/t in September,” PUSK states.

According to analysts, the dynamics of the rapeseed market will largely depend on the behavior of soybean prices, with which rapeseed is linked as a stock indicator.

On the domestic market, the currency price is currently 500-540 euros per ton, and the hryvnia price is 23,200–23,500 UAH/t at ports.

“However, due to delays in the harvesting campaign and weak market liquidity, trade has virtually come to a standstill. However, taking into account further weather and stock market factors, the hryvnia price has the potential to grow,” the experts concluded.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, rapeseed, duties