Ukraine. Sunflower market on the turn of  2026

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Ukraine’s sunflower seed market in late Dec still shaped by two years of droughts, logistics pressure, and shifting trade flows. Although initial 2025 SFS crop outlook was optimistic, expanded area did not generate higher yields with exports being weak.

The market is divided. Pessimists put 2025 output below 10.5 M mt, optimists – near 11 M mt. UkrAgroConsult assumes yields are low, but also accounts for unreported SFS of “grey market” and typical upward revision of officially reported area.

Nearly the entire crop will again be crushed domestically.

SFS exports remain at multi-decade lows. Through the first four months of 2025/26 (Sep-Dec) only about 12 K mt crossed borders.

Farmer low SFS sales and shipping delays keep SFO exports restrained. War and logistics risks further cut Dec shipments.

Sunflower meal follows similar story.

Export price formation, flows and destinations are now tightly linked to infrastructure risks and transit constraints.

If logistics risks continue, their negative impact may be even more than just weakening 2025/26 exports. The risks may influence production decisions for crop 2026 with lower investment in technologies, yields, and inputs, with long-term consequences for Ukraine’s agri production.

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Tags: Ukraine, sunflower oil, export, sunseed, sunflower meal, supply and demand balance, crop forecast