Total grains production for Ukraine in marketing year 2023-24 increased by 10% over the previous year to 60.1 million tonnes, predominately due to a spike in corn output, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
Corn production increased 18% to 31 million tonnes compared to the 2022-23 season, while wheat output rose by 4% to 23 million tonnes, the FAS said. The overall grain production total still is well below the recent high of 85 million tonnes in 2021-22, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A decline in production for the four major grains in 2024-25 is forecast by the FAS, with corn output declining by 16%, rye falling by 13%, barley dropping by 7% and a 3% decrease in wheat.
Thanks to the establishment of a stable export corridor on the Black Sea following the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, grain exports for 2023-24 increased to 51 million tonnes in 2023-24, up from 49.2 million the previous year, the FAS said. Corn exports were up 7% to 28 million tonnes, with shipments to Egypt and Turkey growing by over 250%. However, shipments to China and the European Union fell.
Wheat exports to Egypt increased by a whopping 260%, while shipments to the EU rose by 12%. This helped offset a 2-million-tonne reduction in wheat exports to Turkey.
The rise in exports translated into a significant drawdown in total grains ending stocks to 2.4 million tonnes, the FAS said, a 64% decrease compared with 2022-23. The FAS sees ending stocks dropping slightly to 2.3 million tonnes in 2024-25, assuming “that Ukraine will be able to keep its trade routes in the Black Sea open.”
The agency projects significant declines in corn and wheat exports (22% and 24%, respectively) in 2024-25. It said the expected decline “is the result of decreased production, due to lower areas and climatic conditions, and the inability to dip into large stocks to compensate for decreased production, which was the case in 2022-23 and 2023-24.”
