Ukraine. Oilseeds: Record acreage does not equal record harvest

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Oilseed production in Ukraine was significantly affected by the war. In 2022, reduction in oilseed areas was accompanied by a decrease in harvest. However, in 2023 the areas recovered with total record harvest. Favorable weather of 2023 also contributed to this result.

As a rule, farmers’ decisions on sowing area distribution are formed based of the previous season’s results. Thus, the most attractive crops for farmers in 2025 are the most profitable oilseeds of 2023/24 MY.

Oilseed prices were bullish for the whole 2023/24 season, determining higher margins of oilseeds compared to that of cereals. Soybean margins changed from negative to impressively high figures, explaining significant expansion of soy areas in 2024.

In 2024/25 MY, total oilseed area was record high of 9.83 M ha.

Over the last three years, the areas distribution changed in favor of soybeans (share of 27% in 2024 vs. 15% in 2022) and rapeseed (15% vs. 12) at the expense of SFS (58% vs. 73%).

However, record areas do not guarantee record yields. Taking into account long-term observations, UkrAgroConsult warned of a high probability of a negative scenario in 2024.

Further development of the oilseed and vegoil sector in the Black Sea and Danube region will be discussed at the 10^th International Conference BLACK SEA OIL TRADE on October 15^th in Bucharest.

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Tags: crop forecast, prices, soybean, sunseed, rapeseed, yield, sown area