Ukraine: increasing risks of record-high sunflower oil stocks

Up to 99% of the sunflower seed is processed into sunflower oil. Sunflower oil export potential in MY 2019/20 is also estimated at a record level, UkrAgroConsult reports.

Key risks of the latter half of the season (April-August 2020)

• a drop in exports of sunflower oil
• growth in its stocks in the 2019/20 season

A question arising now is: will Ukraine manage to fully realize its sunflower oil export potential?

A 15% y/y decline in sunflower oil exports by sea as of March 22, 2020 (cargoes shipped and prepared for shipping). At the same time, data for the first half of MY 2019/20 (September-February) showed record production and exports of sunflower oil.

Moreover, sunoil stocks in ports are record high. Crusher stocks of sunflower oil stay at peak levels also.

There are w scenarios for the latter half of MY 2019/20. UkrAgroConsult considers the positive scenario is still more likely to come true than the negative one.

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