Ukraine. High barley prices but low exports

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Grain & Freight Market Analyst

Barley exports 

In July 2024 –March 2025, Ukraine exported almost 2.1 M mt of barley, which is 7% above last season’s figures but below the average for the last 5 seasons. January shipments generally set an anti-record in terms of export volumes. Most of the exports were shipped in the first 4 months of the season (July-October).

China remains the main importer of Ukrainian barley in the 2024/25 season, although China only bought Ukrainian barley in the first months of the season. After September 2024, China stopped importing Ukrainian barley as Chinese traders were asked to reduce feed grain imports to support local farmers.

According to UkrAgroConsult’s analysis, the spring 2025 surge in activity as it was last two seasons is not expected due to:

• Australian barley is cheaper on the Saudi Arabian market
• Decreased competitiveness of Ukrainian barley due to high domestic prices

Price performance and forecasts for 2025/26

In March 2025, the barley price was virtually unchanged at $221-223/mt CPT Odesa. Domestic prices have recently been supported by the rise in corn prices.

It is clear that Ukrainian barley is currently more expensive than other suppliers’ offers. However, Ukrainian barley remains competitive in markets close to the Black Sea region.

Looking ahead to the 2025/26 season, margin and guaranteed sales remain a priority for Ukrainian farmers. Most likely, barley is less profitable than corn and oilseeds on these two indicators.

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Tags: China, export, barley, prices, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine