A significant decrease in Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024-25 marketing year and near historically low beginning stocks are forecast by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture in its latest report.

The FAS projected a 38% decrease in corn exports from the previous year to 17.8 million tonnes, an 18% decrease in wheat exports (15.2 million) and a 19% decrease in barley shipments (2 million), “under the assumption of no large changes to the national energy grid and commercial port infrastructure.”

Due to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022, power outages and air strikes have been affecting the rhythm, speed and volume of agricultural exports through seaports, the FAS said. Although Russia has threatened to attack Ukrainian outbound grain ships on the Black Sea, Ukraine has been able to maintain an independent export corridor out of its Odesa region ports for the last 14 months.

Despite the conflict, Ukraine kept its corn and wheat exports near the five-year average during the past several years. But the large exports coupled with production problems have led to a sharp drawdown in inventory. Ending stocks for all grains at the close of the 2023-24 marketing year were estimated at only 1.2 million tonnes, down 82% from the 6.6 million-tonne carryout in 2022-23, the FAS said. Ending stocks for corn, wheat and barley are at their lowest level in more than 20 years, according to FAS data. Corn inventories plummeted from 2.8 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 200,000, wheat from 3.1 million tonnes to 452,000, and barley from 721,000 tonnes to 543,000.

Dry weather in recent months has led to production issues. The agency forecasts a 24% year-on-year decline in corn output (23.3 million tonnes) on lower yield estimates, a 5% decline in barley production (5.8 million) and a 1% drop in the wheat crop (22.8 million).

As one of the world’s top exporters of corn and wheat, Ukraine is an important supplier to markets such as Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

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