Ukraine could benefit from renewed Chinese purchases of American soybeans

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea to renew trade relations. Following the talks, Trump announced that China would buy “massive” volumes of American soybeans as part of a broader trade agreement, noting that purchases would begin “immediately.” Beijing also confirmed its intention to expand agricultural trade.

Subsequently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the first figures: China agreed to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans this year, a welcome relief for American farmers. He also added that China would commit to purchasing a minimum of 25 million tons annually over the next three years—a promise that, if fulfilled, could signal a structural return of Chinese demand for the US market.

The 12 million ton figure is broadly in line with analysts’ expectations—enough to signal a warming of relations, but nowhere near pre-war levels. Chinese crushers are already well supplied after record purchases from Brazil and Argentina, while domestic crushing demand remains weak. Given high inventories and stable supplies from South America, the agreement appears more like a symbolic reassurance than a structural turnaround.

The industry is also awaiting clarity on tariffs. It is still unclear whether the import duty on American soybeans will be completely eliminated or only temporarily suspended—this will determine the extent to which the agreement will translate into actual trade.

Analysts note that the resumption of Chinese purchases from the US could be a supportive factor for the soybean market. If American volumes are indeed reoriented toward China, the US will likely reduce competition in the Egyptian, Turkish, and EU markets, which in turn will support global prices and improve processing margins. Ukrainian suppliers, for whom these markets are key, should benefit in particular.

Tags: Egypt, EU, soybean, USA, Ukraine, China