Ukraine. Barley at the start of harvest: prices rise amid limited supply

The barley market in Ukraine shows potential for growth. This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the framework of the VAR.

According to PUSK, as of June 23, barley exports amounted to over 6 thousand tons. “This is an expected consequence of the low level of residues at the end of the season. The volume for export is currently limited, which is holding back activity on foreign markets,” analysts comment.

The harvesting campaign has started in the Southern region of Ukraine, where the yield in the first fields was low, fluctuating within 1.15–2.5 t/ha. “Taking into account the weather challenges that have accompanied winter crops since February, the current yield indicators look quite predictable. The average barley yield in Ukraine will probably be about 3 t/ha,” experts believe.

At the same time, tension is building in the market due to limited supply. “We are observing an increase in activity from traders, in particular in connection with the approach of the first shipments at the ports. However, the supply from producers remains restrained, which creates a deficit on the spot market,” the PUSK reports.

Price expectations remain positive. “At the end of June, the seasonal model shows conditional prices for barley in the range of $196–200 per ton, while producers are targeting $200–205. Taking into account the limited supply, this is a quite realistic prospect for the coming weeks,” the experts summarize.

Tags: Ukraine, barley, prices, harvesting