UkrAgroConsult adjusting Ukraine’s wheat balance

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As a rule, farmers fully complete the harvest of wheat and barley by the fall. Therefore, it is already possible to judge about the final crop size basing on harvest data.

According to the State Statistics Service, 32.2 MMT was harvested as of September 1, 2021 with an average yield of4.62 MT/ha. Comparing these data with the final results over five years, the gap averages -1-2%.

Thus, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts adjusted the crop estimate in our wheat supply and demand balance. The barley crop estimate is left unchanged from the previous one.

We increased the wheat export forecast. In October, the Ag Ministry is to sign a new Memorandum with market participants, where exports will tentatively be limited to 25 MMT. This would exceed exportable supplies, i.e. signing the Memorandum is going to by no means affect prices.

Owing to the wheat crop forecast increase, the 2021 grain crop in Ukraine may rise almost to 82 MMT, while grain exports may exceed 61 MMT.

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