UK wheat and barley exports down on five-year average

UK wheat and barley exports have remained slow. January wheat exports were 18.7Kt, an increase from the 9Kt recorded a year earlier but well below the five-year January average of 52.1Kt. Cumulative wheat exports from July to January stood at 88.8Kt, down 48% from the previous year and 80% below the five-year average. Barley exports in January reached 59.9Kt, down 35% year-on-year, with season-to-date exports at 317.1Kt, a 37% drop from last year and 61% below the five-year average. A strong sterling, a reduced wheat crop, and weak demand from Europe have all contributed to sluggish exports. Projections for total wheat exports in 2024/25 currently stand at 175Kt, 32% lower than last year, while barley exports are expected to total 500Kt, down 280Kt from 2023/24.

At the same time, imports have remained firm. UK wheat imports in January reached 258.6Kt, bringing the total from July to January to 1.963Mt. Much of this imported wheat is assumed to be high-quality milling wheat, with Canada supplying 134.8Kt. UK maize imports in January hit 307.8Kt, the highest monthly volume this season and up 1% from last year. Total maize imports for the season reached 1.73Mt, 17% above the five-year average. The price advantage of imported maize earlier in the season drove this increase, but imports are expected to slow in the coming months.

In commodity markets, investment funds have shifted positions due to tariff concerns. Net-short positions in Paris milling wheat have reached their highest level in seven years, while UK feed wheat net-shorts stand at 1222 contracts. In Chicago maize futures, funds have cut their net-long positions from 350,000 contracts in February to 146,542 as of March 11. With ongoing market volatility, fund positions could play a key role in price movements.