U.S. Wheat Exports Rebound in 2024/25 Thanks to Increased Production and Price Competitiveness

Farmers are already prepping their combines for harvest by the time the wheat marketing year ends on May 31, but a look back shares the story of the commitment of U.S. farm families and the industries that support them to keeping the U.S. wheat store open for the world’s buyers.

The 2024/2025 marketing year (June 1, 2024-May 31, 2025) realized a rebound in U.S. wheat exports, driven largely by recovery in U.S. wheat production and competitive pricing. Overall, total U.S. wheat exports increased nearly 16% year-over-year to 820 million bushels (22.3 million metric tons), according to USDA’s June 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Significantly, this increase was achieved despite China being relatively absent from the U.S. and global wheat market this past marketing year. The Chinese government limited wheat imports to protect its domestic producers, resulting in roughly 147 million bushels (4.0 MMT) imported from all origins, a sharp 70% decrease from the prior year.

In contrast, Mexico was a standout customer, hitting record levels in 2024/25 as the top market for U.S. wheat. In April 2025, old crop sales to Mexico reached a record 17.3 million bushels (472,000 MT) for the month, raising total exports to Mexico nearly 147 million bushels (4.0 MMT), according to export data from the USDA Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS).

A major contributing factor to the recovery in export sales was an increase in U.S. wheat production in 2024/25. Following a substantial multi-year drought that plagued large geographies of wheat country, U.S. farmers had more acres make it from planting to harvest. Overall, producers harvested wheat on 38.5 million acres (15.6 million hectares) and production increased 9% to 1.97 billion bushels (53.6 MMT).

Combined with production issues in key competing origins and competitive pricing opportunities, more bushels harvested in the United States meant more bushels to market overseas.

These dynamics played out most dominantly in Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat, which realized a 57% increase in exports year-over-year to 210 million bushels (5.77 MMT). While a substantial improvement, exports have not yet fully recovered to pre-drought and pre-Black Sea conflict levels. Still, increased production of 770 million bushels (nearly 21 MMT) due to better growing conditions combined with narrowing price spreads with competing origins signals a path to regaining market share.

Exports of Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat remained relatively stable for the marketing year, increasing 15 million bushels (408,000 MT) to 250 million bushels (6.7 MMT). Stiff competition from Canada, which had price spreads of up to $1 per bushel, weighed on export potential. Production also saw a slight increase to 503 million bushels (13.7 MMT) with record yields in some areas.

The 2024 Soft White (SW) wheat crop benefited from good moisture and moderate temperatures, resulting in typical protein distribution and generally above-average yields. Exports increased 18% year-over-year to 174 million bushels (4.74  MMT) with an additional sale of 1.0 7 MMT (39.3 million bushels) of mixed feed wheat to South Korea and Thailand. Total U.S. wheat exports to South Korea hit a record high of 88.2 million bushels (2.4 MMT) in 2024/25.

Exports of Soft Red Winter (SRW) were the second highest in the last 10 years, behind last marketing year, and total exports of nearly 121 million bushels (3.29 MMT) remained well above the five-year average. SRW proved to be one of the most competitively priced global origins, acting as the global price leader for nearly four months from March to June 2025. The 2024 SRW crop, though facing mid-season drought and heat, exhibited good milling characteristics and low sprout damage, making it a versatile crop for processors.

With continued strong global competition, durum exports dropped to their second-lowest level on record at 14.4 million bushels (391,000 MT). Durum buyers have good quality options in the bin, however, as both Northern Plains Durum and Desert Durum® production increased and yielded good quality with a protein average of 13.4 percent.

Throughout the 2024/25 marketing year, ample supply and competitive pricing dynamics showed the resilience of the U.S. wheat market, especially despite the volatility due to international conflicts, drought at home and other economic uncertainty over the last few years. While adequate world stocks continue to encourage hand-to-mouth buying patterns, the current global stocks-to-use ratio (as of the June WASDE report from USDA) remains at 32%, the lowest level since 2007/08, indicating a tighter underlying supply situation that offers demand potential in the new marketing year from reliable origins like the United States.

Tags: U.S., Market, durum, Mexico, exports, harvest, Production, wheat, stocks