U.S.: Cautious Optimism for Winter Wheat

Like a marriage, growing winter wheat can be a “for better or for worse” proposition. For the second consecutive year, it appears the U.S. winter wheat crop is leaning toward “better” as it breaks dormancy; but moisture will be required to keep it that way, according to wheat farmers and an extension wheat specialist who spoke to DTN on Monday when the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its first Crop Progress Report for the new growing season.

Overall, 48% of winter wheat across 18 states included in the NASS report was rated as being in good-to-excellent condition. While this percentage was down from 56% for the same week last year, it was still significantly better than in 2022 or 2023 when nationally only 30% and 28% of the crop, respectively, began the new reporting period in good-to-excellent condition.

The latest NASS report rated the remainder of the 2025 winter wheat crop as 31% fair and 21% poor or very poor, compared to 32% fair and 12% poor or very poor last year.

NASS estimated 5% of winter wheat had already headed, 1% behind last year but even the five-year average. Most heading reported occurred in Arkansas, Texas and California, though a minor percentage of heading was noted in Missouri and North Carolina.

“The way I see the wheat crop right now, it’s actually quite similar to what was going on last year at this time of the year,” said Romulo Lollato, Extension wheat and forage specialist at Kansas State University, in a phone interview with DTN on Monday. “We had a call with our extension agents from all over the state this morning, and what they were saying is that the crop so far is looking pretty decent, but it’s going to need some moisture to keep it that way.”

In Kansas – the nation’s most prolific winter wheat producer – NASS reported conditions were nearly identical compared to last year, as Lollato alluded. NASS rated 51% of the crop as good to excellent, compared to 49% last year. The crop rated as fair fell from 37% in 2024 to 32% this year; Kansas wheat rated as poor to very poor increased 3% from the same week last year.

Winter wheat struggles reported were most pronounced in Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas where NASS rated 33%, 38% and 40% of the crop as poor or very poor, respectively.

Lollato said the crop’s current promising condition in Kansas could be attributed to conditions last fall. A good amount of precipitation in late October and November – coupled with above-average fall temperatures – allowed much of the Kansas wheat crop to establish and tiller, entering winter dormancy in good condition. While an Artic blast dropped into the Central Plains in January, the larger number of tillers and consequent root development led to greater winterhardiness, he said.

“I wasn’t too concerned about winterkill, and as we’re traveling around the state right now, the crop has greened up fine,” Lollato said. “I have not found any evidence of winterkill.”

The wheat specialist did add that freezing temperatures this past weekend and to start the week have raised concerns about some damage.

“The crop is primarily around the jointing stage, with it further ahead in southcentral and southeast Kansas and a little behind in the northwest,” Lollato said. “At jointing, it can handle temperatures of about 24 degrees for a couple hours. In parts of western Kansas over the weekend, the temperature got into the mid-teens and stayed below 24 degrees for about six to seven hours. In northwest Kansas, I’m not as concerned because the crop isn’t as far along, but in southwest Kansas, I’m a little bit more concerned. There is a chance we’ll see at least some primary tillers gone.”

The concern for future moisture in the Great Plains is real, said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. He noted that while some have seen good precipitation, many areas of prime wheat territory, particularly in western Kansas over the winter and through the front half of spring, have experienced below-normal rainfall.

“Long-term drought remains in much of the region, though some areas around Texas and Oklahoma as well as Nebraska benefited from last week’s heavy rainfall,” he said. “The region needs more rain. We’ve got a fairly active pattern coming up here that brings chances but no guarantees. DTN has an overall below-normal precipitation outlook for the rest of April. It’s dicey in May; we don’t have a huge signal, but still below normal.

“Overall, it’s not a great place to be in,” he added.

According to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor released April 3, nearly 60% of Kansas was experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. In 2024, that percentage for the same week was only around 29%. Overall, around 82% of the High Plains were experiencing drought conditions of some severity.

In other regions, lacking rainfall is not a concern. For instance, Baranick said the Pacific Northwest had an active winter. Snowpack covers the mountains, and the region has essentially no drought.

Steve VanGrunsven, who grows soft white winter wheat in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, told DTN his crop was looking good and starting to joint.

“We have been a little cooler and wetter than normal but not to a level that would be problematic yet,” he said. “Spring wheat planting is delayed due to wet fields. Acres of spring wheat will be down due to low price and growers not planting low production fields.”

Baranick said for the rest of April, systems will continue bringing showers to the Pacific Northwest. The DTN forecast for May is calling for hotter and drier conditions through the first half of summer in the region.

“So if these areas are irrigated, I see no issues,” he said. “If they’re dryland, I’ll be more concerned if the forecast pans out.”

Across the Delta and portions of the Midwest where soft red winter wheat is grown, rainfall was intense this past week, Baranick said, with some areas from Arkansas up through the western half of Kentucky receiving more than 10 inches of rain.

“The northern half of the Midwest saw much less, and it should have been very beneficial rainfall,” he said. “An active pattern for the rest of April and possibly into May should keep things looking great where fields didn’t flood out.”

Matt Wehmeyer, who farms near Mascoutah, Illinois, just to the east of St. Louis, said wheat in his area had broken dormancy and greened up nicely.

“Although quite saturated across southern Illinois, the wheat generally looks pretty good,” he said.

Farther to the east, Eric Spates raises soft red winter wheat outside of Poolesville, Maryland, about 30 miles northwest of Washington, D.C. He also agreed that generally, the wheat looks fairly good.

“The later-planted fields were a bit thinner this spring, but not terribly concerning,” he told DTN. “I think moisture is adequate for wheat currently, even though we are still behind on rainfall. There’s no surplus of moisture, so we’re subject to become very dry again if we don’t continue to get rainfall.”

Tags: drought, crop, U.S., soft red winter wheat, winter wheat