Turkey’s wheat imports to fall to 6-year low

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) July forecast, Turkey’s wheat imports for the 2024-2025 season will total 8 million tons (-18.7% year-on-year).

Shipments could be the lowest in six years.

USDA notes that Turkey’s wheat crop last season reached a 2017/18 season record of 21 million tons. Stockpiles are above 5 million tons. This is the highest level in the last 30 years.

Production for the current season is estimated at 19 million tons. The figure will decline year-over-year, but still remain above the five-year average.

Turkey’s wheat imports will be closed from June 21 to October 15, 2024. This was announced by the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. This country was the largest buyer of Russian wheat in the last three seasons.

The reasons for the restrictions are excessive stockpiles and a good harvest.

Turkey remained the main importer of Russian grain at the end of the 2023/24 season, although supplies fell by almost a third.

Turkey is the largest exporter of wheat flour in the world. Its main buyers are Iraq, Venezuela and many African countries.

Until a recent policy change, all exported flour was produced from imported wheat.

Flour produced from domestic wheat had to be consumed domestically.

Mills can now process Turkish wheat for re-export for the first time since 2018.

Turkish flour exports are expected to be very competitive in foreign markets, as domestic prices for some wheat classes were below Black Sea prices before the ban.

According to USDA analysts, the biggest effect of the ban on wheat imports to Turkey will be felt by the main suppliers – Russia and Ukraine.

Andrei Sizov, director of the Sovecon analytical center, earlier reminded that Turkey periodically imposes such bans. Imports will be resumed as the country needs raw materials for flour production,” the expert believes.

According to forecasts, exports of Russian wheat in the current season will decrease. Supplies in July are already estimated to be 68% lower year-on-year.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, wheat, imports, restrictions