Turkey’s grain imports projected to decline

Abundant harvests for wheat, corn and barley in Turkey for marketing year 2023-24 are expected to lower import demand for these grains while wheat exports could reach a record, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its Feb. 1 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, the FAS said favorable weather conditions during much of the growing season bumped up production. Wheat is projected at 19.5 million tonnes, corn at 8.4 million tonnes and barley at 8 million tonnes. If realized, the barley crop would be the second largest ever.

The wheat import forecast by the FAS was held steady at 10 million tonnes, assuming the private sector will continue purchasing wheat from abroad, down from 12 million tonnes in 2022-23. Barley production has pushed import demand down to 400,000 tonnes from 2.1 million tonnes the previous year. Corn imports are seen at 2 million tonnes, down from 2.6 million last year.

“The pace of (wheat) imports is expected to hold steady during the second half of the year,” the FAS said. “However, with a sizeable amount of imported wheat being processed and re-exported as flour and pasta through the Suez Canal, there is a chance that import demand could slip if the current situation in the Red Sea persists.”

Grain shipments increasingly are being diverted away from the Suez Canal because of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by Iranian-backed Houthi militia based in Yemen, according to the World Trade Organization.

Turkey’s wheat export forecast for 2023-24 was adjusted higher by the FAS to a record of 8.75 million tonnes, partly based on the expectation that stronger-than-expected exports of flour and pasta will continue throughout the year. The forecast also accounts for the Turkish government’s decision to temporarily allow exports of durum wheat in response to an oversupply.

For the first six months of marketing year 2023-24 (June-November), wheat flour exports were 2.1 million tonnes, up 28% compared to the same period last year. This increase is mainly due to greater demand from African countries. Meantime, pasta exports during this same period grew by 3% year-over-year to 684,000 tonnes.

Tags: corn, Turkey, grain, barley, wheat, imports