Turkey faces crop shortages and a battle for export markets

Dry weather has led to a 15% drop in wheat production in Turkey, while flour exporters are struggling to regain lost market share after the suspension of state support programs.

Turkey, one of the world’s top ten agricultural producers, is facing serious challenges in the 2025/26 season. A combination of adverse weather conditions and regulatory changes has triggered structural shifts in the country’s trade balance.

Wheat: Lower Output and Rising Imports

Due to abnormally dry conditions, Turkey’s wheat harvest is forecast at 16.3 million tonnes, down 15% year-on-year. With around 80% of arable land dependent on rainfall, the lack of precipitation has become a critical factor.

To cover the shortfall, wheat imports are expected to more than double to 7.3 million tonnes, returning to the historical average of the past decade. Around two-thirds of this volume will be processed for re-export as flour and pasta. At the same time, wheat exports are projected to fall to 6 million tonnes, down 1.3 million tonnes, reflecting weaker durum wheat shipments and difficulties in flour sales.

Crisis in the Flour Milling Sector

Turkey’s flour exporters, long regarded as global leaders, have suffered a sharp decline. From July 2024 to January 2025, flour exports dropped by 41% to 1.44 million tonnes.

Key factors include the temporary suspension of the Inward Processing Regime (IPR), which restricted duty-free wheat imports for processing in order to reduce record domestic stocks. In addition, Turkey has lost significant market share in Iraq, its largest buyer, where purchases fell by 64% following new tariffs and the launch of domestic milling capacity. Growing competition from Egyptian flour in African and Middle Eastern markets has further pressured exports.

Other Grains and Consumer Trends

Barley production is expected to decline to 5.1 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes year-on-year, pushing imports up to 1.7 million tonnes to meet livestock feed demand. In contrast, corn production is forecast to rise by 12% to 7.9 million tonnes thanks to widespread irrigation, while imports are set to fall to 3.3 million tonnes.

Despite government price controls, bread prices in Ankara and Istanbul had risen by 50% by January 2026 to around 12.5 lira ($0.33) per loaf. Total wheat consumption is estimated at 18.7 million tonnes, with analysts noting a plateau in demand as higher-income consumers gradually reduce bread intake in favor of alternative foods.

Tags: Turkey, wheat, flour