Trump Tariffs Threaten Brazil’s Rainforests

Global demand for agricultural products is increasingly shaped by geopolitical forces, such as the U.S.-China trade war. Brazilian farmers are reaping benefits, but the country’s fragile ecosystems, particularly the Amazon rainforest, face growing threats. New tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump could once again accelerate deforestation, as seen during his first term.

During Trump’s initial presidency, tariffs on Chinese goods spurred a surge in Brazilian soybean exports to China, driving rapid rainforest destruction. In 2021, soybean prices soared to $15 per bushel, and over 13,000 square kilometers of Amazon rainforest were lost—the largest area in 15 years. This spike was fueled by export revenues that incentivized expanding farmland at the expense of forests. Brazil’s current administration under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has reduced deforestation since 2023, but the new tariffs risk reigniting this destructive cycle.

When Trump introduced punitive tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, China retaliated by banning U.S. soybean imports. Brazilian farmers filled the gap, doubling soybean exports to China and increasing beef exports fivefold. This secured Brazil a positive trade balance with China but triggered an environmental disaster. Under President Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022), environmental agencies were weakened, allowing farmers to burn forests for soybean plantations and cattle pastures. Deforestation in the Amazon surged to 13,200 square kilometers in 2021, and in the Cerrado savanna, it rose to 11,000 square kilometers.

Trump’s current tariffs are once again driving Brazilian agricultural exports to China and Southeast Asia. A study by the Amazon Institute (Imazon) reveals that degraded areas in the Amazon increased fivefold from August 2024 to February 2025, marking the highest level in 15 years. Degraded areas—partially burned or logged forests—are primed for agricultural use. Meanwhile, international pressure on Brazil’s agricultural sector, such as from the EU, is waning. The EU delayed its anti-deforestation regulation by a year, which farmers may interpret as a green light for further forest destruction.

Lula’s administration has strengthened oversight of deforestation, but political vulnerabilities ahead of the 2026 elections and the upcoming UN climate conference (COP30) in Brazil complicate efforts. Official deforestation data for August 2024 to July 2025, due in November, will likely miss the peak of slash-and-burn clearing during the dry season (from June). This could temporarily mask the crisis. If Brazil fails to curb deforestation, the Amazon and Cerrado face a new wave of destruction, threatening global climate goals and biodiversity.

Tags: China, Brazil, soybean, USA, restrictions