Trump tariffs could open export door for Ukrainian agriculture
Ukraine’s agricultural sector could benefit from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports from all nations, which are expected to trigger countermeasures and potentially lead to higher prices and lower demand for American goods.
This could create opportunities for alternative suppliers, including Ukraine, which is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of corn. It is in a position to partially replace U.S. corn if retaliatory sanctions are imposed.
Both ASAP Agri and Barva Invest, consulting firms, point to the potential impact of counter-restrictions on U.S. exports, with the European Union, Australia and China most likely to impose such measures. “It will open a huge window of opportunity for alternative suppliers,” especially in the corn, soybean and wheat markets, where Ukraine competes directly with the United States.
Ukraine produced 32 million tons of corn in 2023 and 26 million tons in 2024. The country also exported nearly 30 million tons of corn in the 2023/24 season and is expected to ship 22 million tons abroad in 2024/25, making Ukraine one of the largest producers and exporters of corn in the world.
Favorable export prices for corn are likely to lead to an increase in corn acreage this year. In addition to corn, Ukraine harvested a record 6.2 million tons of soybeans in 2024, with about half of this crop expected to be exported in the current season. The soybean harvest in 2025 is expected to be between 5.8 and 6.2 million tons, depending on rainfall in May and June.
According to the State Customs Service, in the first two months of 2025, corn was the most exported commodity from Ukraine, accounting for 26.5% of agricultural exports and 16% of the country’s total exports. During this period, Ukraine exported 4.7 million tons of corn, worth $982 million.
In 2024, agricultural products accounted for 59% of Ukraine’s total exports, with a value of $24.5 billion. Sunflower oil was the largest component of agricultural exports, accounting for 21%, followed by corn at 21% and wheat at 15%. Other significant agricultural exports included rapeseed, soybeans, and cake and residues from the extraction of vegetable fats and oils.
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