Tough competition between Kazakhstan and Canada on the linseed market expected in EU

Kazakhstan has sharply increased its linseed exports in the new season, surpassing last year’s level threefold in the first two months of the MY 2025/26. According to the Committee of Analytics of the Kazakhstan Grain Union, exports to non-EAEU countries reached a record 119.8 thousand tons in October, nearly double the September figure. Overall, exports totaled 182.7 thousand tons in the first two months, accounting for 35% of last year’s total volume.

Significant growth is seen in shipments to the European Union. Exports to Belgium reached 45.2 thousand tons (2.8 times higher), Poland – 14.4 thousand tons (5.8 times), Germany – 4.9 thousand tons (6.1 times), and the Czech Republic – 1.6 thousand tons (4 times). Exports also increased to Lithuania, Estonia, Italy, and the Netherlands, which experts attribute to the EU raising tariffs on Russian linseed to 20%.

Linseed deliveries to other countries have also grown: Afghanistan – 20.8 thousand tons (+37%), China – 61.4 thousand tons (4 times), Pakistan – 3.9 thousand tons (+39%), Uzbekistan – 4.9 thousand tons (+58%), and Tajikistan – 2.5 thousand tons (1.8 times).

Experts predict further growth in global linseed production due to expanded sowing areas in major producing countries. Russia’s output is expected to rise by 28% to 1.73 million tons, Kazakhstan – by 26% to 810 thousand tons, and Canada – by 76% to 455 thousand tons. Overall global production may reach 3.9 million tons, while exports from the three key countries could total 2.2 million tons.

Canada this year achieved a record yield of 1.8 t/ha, bringing production to a three-year high of 0.46 million tons. This creates conditions for fierce competition with Kazakhstan in the European market and potential price declines. Higher EU tariffs on Russian linseed are expected to shift purchases toward Kazakh and Canadian linseed.

According to the Kazakhstan Grain Union, domestic production is forecast at 0.81 million tons, with exports at 0.68 million tons. Alongside Canada’s production recovery, this is expected to saturate the European market, likely boosting imports and competitive pricing of linseed in the coming months.

Tags: Kazakhstan, EU, Canada