This season, farmers have a significant impact on the market
2024/25 has become a producer’s season. There is a lot of competition in the trading market now, and amid a decline in the harvest of the main crops – sunflower and corn – the farmer can afford to hold the products, wait and then sell them at the highest prices and the best conditions.
This was stated by Natalia Levkoniuk, Head of DAP/CPT, Atria Brokers, during the BLACK SEA GRAIN.KYIV-2025 conference.
“The fundamental factors for the market are demand, harvest and balance. And we see this in the current season, when the soybean harvest has increased, prices are weak, and margins are small. The situation with sunflower is the opposite, when constant demand drives up the price, and producers can hold on to their stock and sell at the best prices. But today we see that situational spikes in the market also play an important role,” says Natalia Levkoniuk.
As an example, she cites Turkey’s introduction of an import quota of 1 million tons of corn, to which the market immediately reacted – prices rose, traders began to actively buy corn, and producers began to raise prices. However, at the time of the quota introduction, 50% of the demand was already covered.
The market also reacts to Donald Trump’s customs policy: if a duty is imposed on US corn, it is clear that there will be further demand for Ukrainian grain, and farmers raise the price.
“My advice to agricultural producers is to always analyze what is already on the market and what is expected in order to make the right conclusion,” says Levkoniuk.
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